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Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wu, Shaohong1; Feng, Aiqing1,2; Gao, Jiangbo1; Chen, Manchun5; Li, Yanzhong2,4; Wang, Lei3
刊名STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
出版日期2017-12-01
卷号31期号:10页码:2573-2584
关键词Recurrence period Extreme water level Sea-level rise Climate change Risk management
ISSN号1436-3240
DOI10.1007/s00477-016-1327-2
通讯作者Wu, Shaohong(wush@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Sea-level rise, as a result of global warming, may lead to more natural disasters in coastal regions where there are substantial aggregations of population and property. Thus, this paper focuses on the impact of sea-level rise on the recurrence periods of extreme water levels fitted using the Pearson type III (P-III) model. Current extreme water levels are calculated using observational data, including astronomical high tides and storm surges, while future extreme water levels are determined by superposing scenario data of sea-level rise onto current extreme water levels. On the basis of a case study using data from Shandong Province, China, results indicated that sea-level rise would significantly shorten the recurrence periods of extreme water levels, especially under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Results showed that by the middle of the century, 100-year current extreme water levels for all stations would translate into once in 15-30 years under RCP 2.6, and once in ten to 25 years under RCP 8.5. Most seriously, the currently low probability event of a 1000-year recurrence would become common, occurring nearly every 10 years by 2100, based on projections under RCP 8.5. Therefore, according to this study, corresponding risk to coastlines could well be increase in future, as the recurrence periods of extreme water levels would be shortened with climate change.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; STORM-SURGE ; EAST-COAST ; IMPACTS ; CHINA ; TIDE ; PROJECTIONS ; ADAPTATION ; SCENARIOS ; FLOODS
资助项目National Science and Technology Support Program[2013BAK05B04] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41530749] ; Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Funding Projects of China[2013034]
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000415137900007
出版者SPRINGER
资助机构National Science and Technology Support Program ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Funding Projects of China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/61142]  
专题陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Wu, Shaohong
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.North China Univ Water Resources & Elect Power, Yellow River Inst Sci, Zhengzhou 450045, Henan, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
5.Natl Marine Data & Informat Serv, Tianjin 300171, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wu, Shaohong,Feng, Aiqing,Gao, Jiangbo,et al. Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2017,31(10):2573-2584.
APA Wu, Shaohong,Feng, Aiqing,Gao, Jiangbo,Chen, Manchun,Li, Yanzhong,&Wang, Lei.(2017).Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,31(10),2573-2584.
MLA Wu, Shaohong,et al."Shortening the recurrence periods of extreme water levels under future sea-level rise".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 31.10(2017):2573-2584.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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