identificationandcategorizationofclimatechangerisks
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yuehong Zhang1; Shaohong Wu1; Erfu Dai1; Dengwei Liu2; Yunhe Yin1 |
| 刊名 | chinesegeographicalscience
 |
| 出版日期 | 2008 |
| 卷号 | 018期号:003页码:268 |
| ISSN号 | 1002-0063 |
| 英文摘要 | The scientific evidence that climate is changing due to greenhouse gas emission is now incontestable, which may put many social, biological, and geophysical systems in the world at risk. In this paper, we first identified main risks induced from or aggravated by climate change. Then we categorized them applying a new risk categorization system brought forward by Renn in a framework of International Risk Governance Council. We proposed that ＂uncertainty＂ could be treated as the classification criteria. Based on this, we established a quantitative method with fuzzy set theory, in which ＂confidence＂ and ＂likelihood＂, the main quantitative terms for expressing uncertainties in IPCC, were used as the feature parameters to construct the fuzzy membership functions of four risk types. According to the maximum principle, most climate change risks identified were classified into the appropriate risk types. In the mean time, given that not all the quantitative terms are available, a qualitative approach was also adopted as a complementary classification method. Finally, we get the preliminary results of climate change risk categorization, which might iay the foundation for the future integrated risk management of climate change. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/75834]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 2.Development Research Center, Ministry of Water Resources |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yuehong Zhang,Shaohong Wu,Erfu Dai,et al. identificationandcategorizationofclimatechangerisks[J]. chinesegeographicalscience,2008,018(003):268. |
| APA | Yuehong Zhang,Shaohong Wu,Erfu Dai,Dengwei Liu,&Yunhe Yin.(2008).identificationandcategorizationofclimatechangerisks.chinesegeographicalscience,018(003),268. |
| MLA | Yuehong Zhang,et al."identificationandcategorizationofclimatechangerisks".chinesegeographicalscience 018.003(2008):268. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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