Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, Dongsheng1; Wu, Shaohong1,2 |
| 刊名 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019-09-01 |
| 卷号 | 55期号:9页码:7860-7875 |
| 关键词 | active layer thickness permafrost climate change Qinghai-Tibet Plateau |
| ISSN号 | 0043-1397 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2019WR024969 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Dongsheng(zhaods@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Climate warming would increase the active layer thickness (ALT) of permafrost, which can cause changes in the hydrological cycle, ecological processes, and carbon flux in cold regions. However, changes in permafrost ALT due to climate warming remain poorly quantified, which limits our understanding of environmental change in cold regions. In this study, the Lund-Postam-Jena dynamic vegetation model is coupled to the Kudryavtsev model to examine changes in permafrost ALT on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) under climate change scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest that the permafrost ALT on the QTP would exhibit a significant increasing trend under the climate change scenarios, and a large increment of ALT may occur in the northwestern QTP. In the near-term (2011-2040), the change in ALT on the QTP is different under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, with an increment of 5-30 cm. In the mid-term (2041-2070), ALT would deepen further with an obvious reduction in permafrost area, while the increase in ALT decreases from south to north. In the long-term (2071-2099), the average increment of ALT would be greater than 30 cm under the RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the increment in ALT increases from south to north, with a remarkable retreat in permafrost area from south to north. |
| WOS关键词 | EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS ; THAWING PERMAFROST ; VEGETATION ; DYNAMICS ; CMIP5 ; CHINA ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; DEGRADATION ; VARIABILITY |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000492139200021 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/132003]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Dongsheng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Dongsheng,Wu, Shaohong. Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(9):7860-7875. |
| APA | Zhao, Dongsheng,&Wu, Shaohong.(2019).Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(9),7860-7875. |
| MLA | Zhao, Dongsheng,et al."Projected Changes in Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Under Climate Change".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.9(2019):7860-7875. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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