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Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Huang, Hefei1,2; Cui, Huijuan1; Ge, Quansheng1,2
刊名NATURAL HAZARDS
出版日期2021-04-26
页码21
关键词Potential risk Extreme precipitation Threshold Climate change
ISSN号0921-030X
DOI10.1007/s11069-021-04768-9
通讯作者Cui, Huijuan(cuihj@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要A warmer climate has caused more extreme climate events like the heatwave or extreme precipitation, which has led to a large number of lives and economic losses. In this study, we adopt historical daily precipitation from rainfall estimates on a gridded network (REGEN) and future daily projections from 10 general circulation models (GCMs) to analyze the potential risks of extreme precipitation due to changes in the magnitude and frequency. We calculate the 10-year and 100-year return levels by fitting the partial duration series (PDS) data with the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. The potential risks are quantified in two terms: by the ratio of the magnitude to the threshold and by the exceedance frequency comparing to the theoretical value. The results show that in the future, about 46% of the world may suffer from mid or high risk of change in extreme precipitation. Most regions show higher risk due to the increased frequency of extreme precipitation events under the RCP8.5 scenario. The high risk of humid regions mainly appears under the RCP8.5 scenario and is mainly driven by frequency change, while that of arid regions appears under both the scenarios and is driven by both the frequency and magnitude change. The tropical rainforest climate areas of South America (SA (N)), the tropical savanna or tropical wet monsoon and tropical dry areas of South Asia (SA), and the subarctic climate areas of Northern Asia (NOA) may suffer more risks from the view of both magnitude and frequency changes of extreme precipitation.
WOS关键词DURATION SERIES METHODS ; ANNUAL MAXIMUM SERIES ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; HYDROLOGIC EVENTS ; SYSTEM MODEL ; RIVER-BASIN ; FLOOD RISK ; FREQUENCY ; RAINFALL ; TRENDS
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0605303] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877454] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51809251] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23100401] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2019053] ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2017RC201]
WOS研究方向Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000644382800001
出版者SPRINGER
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/161646]  
专题陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Cui, Huijuan
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Patterns & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Huang, Hefei,Cui, Huijuan,Ge, Quansheng. Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2021:21.
APA Huang, Hefei,Cui, Huijuan,&Ge, Quansheng.(2021).Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change.NATURAL HAZARDS,21.
MLA Huang, Hefei,et al."Assessment of potential risks induced by increasing extreme precipitation under climate change".NATURAL HAZARDS (2021):21.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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