Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yin Yunhe2; Deng Haoyu2; Ma Danyang3; Wu Shaohong1,2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-09-01 |
| 卷号 | 31期号:9页码:1261-1282 |
| 关键词 | climate change risk assessment arid humid transition zone NPP ecosystem |
| ISSN号 | 1009-637X |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11442-021-1897-x |
| 通讯作者 | Wu Shaohong(wush@ignsrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Assessing the climate change risk faced by the ecosystems in the arid/humid transition zone (AHTZ) in northern China holds scientific significance to climate change adaptation. We simulated the net primary productivity (NPP) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using an improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena model. Then a method was established based on the NPP to identify the climate change risk level. From the midterm period (2041-2070) to the long-term period (2071-2099), the risks indicated by the negative anomaly and the downward trend of the NPP gradually extended and increased. The higher the scenario emissions, the more serious the risk. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, during 2071-2099, the total risk area would be 81.85%, that of the high-risk area would reach 54.71%. In this high-risk area, the NPP anomaly would reach -96.00 +/- 46.95 gC center dot m(-2)center dot a(-1), and the rate of change of the NPP would reach -3.56 +/- 3.40 gC center dot m(-2)center dot a(-1). The eastern plain of the AHTZ and the eastern grasslands of Inner Mongolia are expected to become the main risk concentration areas. Our results indicated that the management of future climate change risks requires the consideration of the synergistic effects of warming and intensified drying on the ecosystem. |
| WOS关键词 | NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY ; GLOBAL TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE ; IMPACTS ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; DYNAMICS ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; TEMPERATURE |
| 资助项目 | National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFC1508805] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20020202] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19040304] |
| WOS研究方向 | Physical Geography |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000692383300002 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| 资助机构 | National Key R&D Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165188]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu Shaohong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Henan Prov Dev & Reform Commiss, Zhengzhou 450018, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yin Yunhe,Deng Haoyu,Ma Danyang,et al. Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2021,31(9):1261-1282. |
| APA | Yin Yunhe,Deng Haoyu,Ma Danyang,&Wu Shaohong.(2021).Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,31(9),1261-1282. |
| MLA | Yin Yunhe,et al."Intensified risk to ecosystem productivity under climate change in the arid/humid transition zone in northern China".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 31.9(2021):1261-1282. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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