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Will a nonstationary change in extreme precipitation affect dam security in China?

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Huang, Hefei1,2; Cui, Huijuan1; Ge, Quansheng1,2
刊名JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
出版日期2021-12-01
卷号603页码:12
关键词Extreme precipitation Nonstationary change Impact level Generalized Pareto distribution Dams
ISSN号0022-1694
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126859
通讯作者Cui, Huijuan(cuihj@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Due to the changing climate and environment, the stationary assumption used to calculate the design precipitation or flood of dams is no longer suitable, threatening dam reliability and safety. To see whether nonstationary changes in extreme precipitation will impact existing dams in China, we quantify the exceedance of extreme precipitation over the design intensity by the impact level (R), where the future extreme precipitation intensity is calculated from the nonstationary generalized Pareto (GP) distribution. We mainly focus on medium- (reservoir capacity greater than 0.1 billion m(3)), large- (reservoir capacity greater than 1 billion m(3)), and super-sized dams (reservoir capacity greater than 10 billion m(3)), which have design return periods longer than 100 years. We find that about 15 %-20 % of regions in China may have significant increases in extreme precipitation in the future, mainly in the southeast and northwest. 15 % of medium- and large-sized dams of China may be significantly affected (R greater than 50 %), and more dams are expected to be affected by 1-DAY (156) and 3-DAY (149) precipitation, compared as opposed to 5-DAY (128) precipitation. For super-sized dams, there is no possible significant impact in any of the basins (all R < 100%) by 2100 under the current nonstationary assumption, but results using CMIP6 data show that dams over the Zhujiang River Basin and Xinanjiang River Basin are expected to be impacted (R greater than 100 %) under the SSP585 scenario. However, under the SSP126 scenario, the impacts of extreme precipitation are consistent with the nonstationary analysis results, which suggest non-significant impacts in all basins.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FREQUENCY ; RAINFALL ; INTENSITY ; DURATION ; STATIONARITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; INCREASES ; TRENDS ; MODEL
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23100401] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877454] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51809251] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41730654] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0605303] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2019053] ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2017RC201]
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000706313000044
出版者ELSEVIER
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/167400]  
专题陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文
通讯作者Cui, Huijuan
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Patterns & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Huang, Hefei,Cui, Huijuan,Ge, Quansheng. Will a nonstationary change in extreme precipitation affect dam security in China?[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2021,603:12.
APA Huang, Hefei,Cui, Huijuan,&Ge, Quansheng.(2021).Will a nonstationary change in extreme precipitation affect dam security in China?.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,603,12.
MLA Huang, Hefei,et al."Will a nonstationary change in extreme precipitation affect dam security in China?".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 603(2021):12.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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