Climate-associated major food crops production change under multi-scenario in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Yujie2,3; Zhang, Jie2,3; Pan, Tao2; Chen, Qiaomin1,2; Qin, Ya2,3; Ge, Quansheng2,3 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-03-10 |
| 卷号 | 811页码:10 |
| 关键词 | China Major crops Phenology Probabilistic estimate Yield |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.151393 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yujie(liuyujie@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | To inform targeted adaptation measures, comprehensive assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural systems are urgently needed. The current study analyzed the production (including phenology, yield, ET, and WUE) of major crops in the near future (2011-2040) through probabilistic assessment. The Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat/Maize model was driven by ensemble climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) under three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Results showed that: (1) Compared with the base period, the probability of advanced maturity for wheat and maize was 90.36-91.18% and 62.96-64.50%, respectively. The probability of yield reduction for wheat and maize was 64.12-68.93% and 40.44-41.41%, respectively. The probability of water use efficiency (WUE) reduction for wheat and maize was 51.09-53.94% and 35.86-37.93%, respectively. (2) In the absence of adaptation measures, substantial yield loss was found in major crop-producing areas, including the northern winter wheat planting area and Huang-Huai Plain spring-summer maize zone. The spatial overlap of the vulnerable area will exacerbate food insecurity. (3) The decrease in wheat yield and WUE were both greater than that of maize. Replacing highly sensitive crops with heat-tolerant varieties and dietary diversity should be advocated to cope with future climate change. The results will contribute to adaptive decision-making in China. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| WOS关键词 | RISING TEMPERATURES ; CROPPING SYSTEM ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; GLOBAL YIELDS ; WHEAT ; MAIZE ; MANAGEMENT ; IMPACTS ; ADAPTATION ; PHENOLOGY |
| 资助项目 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA28060200] ; National Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars[42122003] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[Y202016] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2017RC101] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000766820500012 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/172807]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Liu, Yujie |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Queensland, Sch Food & Agr Sci, Gatton, Qld 4343, Australia 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Yujie,Zhang, Jie,Pan, Tao,et al. Climate-associated major food crops production change under multi-scenario in China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2022,811:10. |
| APA | Liu, Yujie,Zhang, Jie,Pan, Tao,Chen, Qiaomin,Qin, Ya,&Ge, Quansheng.(2022).Climate-associated major food crops production change under multi-scenario in China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,811,10. |
| MLA | Liu, Yujie,et al."Climate-associated major food crops production change under multi-scenario in China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 811(2022):10. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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