Will China achieve its 2060 carbon neutral commitment from the provincial perspective?
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Sun, Li-Li1; Cui, Hui-Juan1; Ge, Quan-Sheng1,2 |
| 刊名 | ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:2页码:169-178 |
| 关键词 | China's carbon neutrality Peak emission Provincial emission CCUS STIRPAT |
| ISSN号 | 1674-9278 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.accre.2022.02.002 |
| 通讯作者 | Cui, Hui-Juan(cuihj@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | China has pledged to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. However, the significant variations of provincial carbon emissions make it unclear whether they can jointly fulfill the national carbon peak and neutrality goal. Thus, this study predicts the emission trajectories at provincial level in China by employing the extended STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model to see the feasibility and time of reaching peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality. We found that most provinces can achieve peak emission before 2030 but challenging to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, even considering the ecological carbon sink. The provincial neutrality time is concentrated between 2058 and 2070; the sooner the carbon emission peaks, the earlier the carbon neutral will be realized. The aggregated carbon emissions at provincial level show that China can achieve its carbon emission peak of 9.64-10.71 Gt before 2030, but it is unlikely to achieve the carbon neutrality goal before 2060 without carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS). With high CCUS development, China is expected to achieve carbon neutrality in 2054-2058, irrespective of the socio-economic scenarios. With low CCUS development, China's carbon neutrality target will be achieved only under the accelerated-improvement scenario, while it will postpone to 2061 and 2064 under the continued-improvement and the business-as-usual scenarios, respectively. |
| WOS关键词 | EXTENDED STIRPAT MODEL ; CO2 EMISSIONS ; DRIVING FORCES ; CITY ; IMPACT ; COUNTRIES ; PEAK |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2017YFA0605303] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA23100401] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41877454] ; China Postdoctoral ScienceFoundation[2019M650824] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS[2019053] ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2017RC201] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000777105900003 |
| 出版者 | KEAI PUBLISHING LTD |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China Postdoctoral ScienceFoundation ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS ; Young Talents in IGSNRR, CAS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/173839]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Cui, Hui-Juan |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Sun, Li-Li,Cui, Hui-Juan,Ge, Quan-Sheng. Will China achieve its 2060 carbon neutral commitment from the provincial perspective?[J]. ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,2022,13(2):169-178. |
| APA | Sun, Li-Li,Cui, Hui-Juan,&Ge, Quan-Sheng.(2022).Will China achieve its 2060 carbon neutral commitment from the provincial perspective?.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,13(2),169-178. |
| MLA | Sun, Li-Li,et al."Will China achieve its 2060 carbon neutral commitment from the provincial perspective?".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 13.2(2022):169-178. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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