Stronger Spring Phenological Advance in Future Warming Scenarios for Temperate Species With a Lower Chilling Sensitivity
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Hu, Zhi1,2; Wang, Huanjiong1; Dai, Junhu1; Ge, Quansheng1; Lin, Shaozhi1,2 |
| 刊名 | FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-05-18 |
| 卷号 | 13页码:13 |
| 关键词 | spring phenology climate change chilling forcing growth chamber experiment |
| ISSN号 | 1664-462X |
| DOI | 10.3389/fpls.2022.830573 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Huanjiong(wanghj@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Spring warming could induce earlier leaf-out or flowering of temperate plant species, and decreased chilling in winter has a delaying effect on spring phenology. However, the relative contribution of the decreased chilling and increased forcing on spring phenological change is unclear. Here, we analyzed the experimental data for 14 temperate woody species in Beijing, China and quantified the forcing requirements (FR) of spring phenology and chilling sensitivity (the ratio of the FR at the low chilling condition to the FR at the high chilling condition) for each species. Furthermore, using species-specific functions between the amount of chilling and FR, we established a phenological model to simulate the annual onset dates of spring events during the past 69 years (1952-2020) and in the future (2021-2099) under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. We also developed a novel method to quantitatively split the predicted phenological change into the effects caused by changes in forcing and those caused by changes in chilling. The results show that the FR of spring events decreased with the increase in the amount of chilling, and this relationship could be described as an exponential decay function. The basic FR (the FR at the high chilling condition) and chilling sensitivity varied greatly among species. In the 1952-2020 period, the advancing effect of increased forcing was stronger than the effect of chilling, leading to earlier spring events with a mean trend of -1.96 days/decade. In future climate scenarios, the spring phenology of temperate species would continue to advance but will be limited by the decreased chilling. The species with lower chilling sensitivities showed stronger trends than those with high chilling sensitivities. Our results suggested that the delaying effect of declining chilling could only slow down the spring phenological advance to a certain extent in the future. |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PLANT PHENOLOGY ; FROST DAMAGE ; BUDBURST ; RESPONSES ; SHIFTS ; TIMES |
| 资助项目 | National Key R&D Program of China[2018YFA0606102] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41871032] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[2018070] ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS[2018RC101] |
| WOS研究方向 | Plant Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000805037900001 |
| 出版者 | FRONTIERS MEDIA SA |
| 资助机构 | National Key R&D Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS ; Program for Kezhen Excellent Talents in IGSNRR, CAS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/177788]  |
| 专题 | 陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Huanjiong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hu, Zhi,Wang, Huanjiong,Dai, Junhu,et al. Stronger Spring Phenological Advance in Future Warming Scenarios for Temperate Species With a Lower Chilling Sensitivity[J]. FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE,2022,13:13. |
| APA | Hu, Zhi,Wang, Huanjiong,Dai, Junhu,Ge, Quansheng,&Lin, Shaozhi.(2022).Stronger Spring Phenological Advance in Future Warming Scenarios for Temperate Species With a Lower Chilling Sensitivity.FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE,13,13. |
| MLA | Hu, Zhi,et al."Stronger Spring Phenological Advance in Future Warming Scenarios for Temperate Species With a Lower Chilling Sensitivity".FRONTIERS IN PLANT SCIENCE 13(2022):13. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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