Integrating Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium Models for Both Mass and Monetary Balances in Prospective Modeling: A Case for the Chinese Building Sector
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Cao, Zhi3; Liu, Gang3; Zhong, Shuai1; Dai, Hancheng4; Pauliuk, Stefan2 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2019 |
| 卷号 | 53期号:1页码:224-233 |
| ISSN号 | 0013-936X |
| DOI | 10.1021/acs.est.8b03633 |
| 英文摘要 | Integrated Assessment Models based on Computable General Equilibrium (IAM/CGE) and dynamic Material Flow Analysis (dynamic MFA) are two most widely used prospective model families to assess large-scale and long-term socioeconomic metabolism (SEM) and inform sustainable SEM transition. The latter approach could complement the former by a more explicit understanding of service provision, in-use stocks, and material cycles in a mass balanced framework. In this paper, we demonstrated this by integrating the dynamic MFA and CGE model approaches for the Chinese building sector from 2012 to 2030. Our results revealed the impacts of building stock dynamics on sectoral and economy wide CO, emissions: lower service saturation levels and later saturation time of building stock development could free up investment on buildings and accumulatively save up to 25.4 Gt in embodied CO2 emissions of the building construction sector, representing a 2.7-fold of 2012 countrywide CO2 emissions. However, the save-ups are partly compensated by an increase of embodied CO2 emissions in the other sectors due to economy-wide rebound effect (ca. 18.8 Gt or about 74%). The integrated model we developed could help ensure both mass and monetary balances, explore rebound effects in prospective modeling, and thus better understand the economy-wide consequences of infrastructure development. |
| WOS关键词 | IN-USE STOCKS ; INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY ; ALUMINUM ; CONSUMPTION ; EMISSIONS ; ECONOMY ; FUTURE ; METABOLISM ; EVOLUTION ; PRODUCTS |
| 资助项目 | Danish Council for Independent Research (CityWeight)[6111-00555B] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41728002] ; Light-house ODEx funding of University of Southern Denmark (Building Passport)[95-443-64283] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000455076600024 |
| 出版者 | AMER CHEMICAL SOC |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/51265]  |
| 专题 | 资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Freiburg, Fac Environm & Nat Resources, Ind Ecol Grp, Tennenbacher Str 4, D-79106 Freiburg, Germany 3.Univ Southern Denmark, Dept Chem Engn Biotechnol & Environm Technol, SDU Life Cycle Engn, DK-5230 Odense M, Denmark 4.Peking Univ, Coll Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cao, Zhi,Liu, Gang,Zhong, Shuai,et al. Integrating Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium Models for Both Mass and Monetary Balances in Prospective Modeling: A Case for the Chinese Building Sector[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY,2019,53(1):224-233. |
| APA | Cao, Zhi,Liu, Gang,Zhong, Shuai,Dai, Hancheng,&Pauliuk, Stefan.(2019).Integrating Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium Models for Both Mass and Monetary Balances in Prospective Modeling: A Case for the Chinese Building Sector.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY,53(1),224-233. |
| MLA | Cao, Zhi,et al."Integrating Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Computable General Equilibrium Models for Both Mass and Monetary Balances in Prospective Modeling: A Case for the Chinese Building Sector".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY 53.1(2019):224-233. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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