Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, Qi2; Li, Shanshan2; Cao, Wei3; Liu, De-Li4; Qian, Quan5; Ren, Hongyan3; Ding, Fan6; Williams, Gail1; Huxley, Rachel7; Zhang, Wenyi5 |
| 刊名 | ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2018-04-01 |
| 卷号 | 126期号:4页码:11 |
| ISSN号 | 0091-6765 |
| DOI | 10.1289/EHP3062 |
| 英文摘要 | BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China. OBJECTIVES: We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s. METHODS: Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of I-IFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-WA/1D associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions. RESULTS: During 2009-2014, > 11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20 degrees C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of I-IFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): -13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HEM") may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China. CONCLUSION: Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and MAID varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. |
| WOS关键词 | EMERGENCY-DEPARTMENT VISITS ; TIME-SERIES ; CHILDHOOD HAND ; INFECTIOUS-DISEASE ; SHANDONG PROVINCE ; RISK-FACTORS ; IMPACT ; HERPANGINA ; MORTALITY ; DYNAMICS |
| 资助项目 | National Mega Project for the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases[2018ZX10713003] ; Monash Graduate Scholarship and the Monash International Postgraduate Research Scholarship ; Early Career Fellowship of the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC)[APP1109193] ; seed funding from the NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence Centre for Air Quality and Health Research and Evaluation[APP1030259] ; Career Development Fellowship of the Australian NHMRC[APP1107107] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000431396900014 |
| 出版者 | US DEPT HEALTH HUMAN SCIENCES PUBLIC HEALTH SCIENCE |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/55071]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Queensland, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol & Biostat, Brisbane, Qld, Australia 2.Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.New South Wales Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia 5.Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Ctr Dis Surveillance & Res, Inst Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Publ Hlth Emergency Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.La Trobe Univ, Coll Sci Hlth & Engn, Melbourne, Vic, Australia |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Qi,Li, Shanshan,Cao, Wei,et al. Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,2018,126(4):11. |
| APA | Zhao, Qi.,Li, Shanshan.,Cao, Wei.,Liu, De-Li.,Qian, Quan.,...&Guo, Yuming.(2018).Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,126(4),11. |
| MLA | Zhao, Qi,et al."Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 126.4(2018):11. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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