Modeling the effect of adaptation to future climate change on spring phenological trend of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Huanjiong2; Lin, Shaozhi1,2; Dai, Junhu2; Ge, Quansheng2 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-11-10 |
| 卷号 | 846页码:13 |
| 关键词 | Phenology Leaf -out date Fagus sylvatica Phenotypic plasticity Local adaption Climate change |
| ISSN号 | 0048-9697 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157540 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Huanjiong(wanghj@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Temperate trees could cope with climate change through phenotypic plasticity of phenological key events or adaptation in situ via selection on genetic variation. However, the relative contribution of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity to phenological change is unclear for many ecologically important tree species. Here, we analyzed the leaf-out data of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 50 provenances planted in 7 trial sites. We first constructed a function between chilling accumulation (CA) and photoperiod-associated heat requirement (PHR) of leaf-out date for each provenance and quantified the relationship between parameters of the CA-PHR function and climatic variables at provenance origins by using the random forest model. Furthermore, we used the provenance-specific CAPHR function to simulate future leaf-out dates under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and two assumptions (no adaptation and adaptation). The results showed that both CA, provenance, and their interactions affected the PHR of leaf-out. The provenances from southeastern Europe exhibited a stronger response of PHR to CA and thus flushed earlier than northwestern provenances. The parameters of the CA-PHR function were connected with climatic variables (e.g., mean diurnal temperature range, temperature seasonality) at the originating sites of each provenance. If only considering the phenotypic plasticity, the leaf-out date of European beech in 2070-2099 will advance by 6.8 and 9.0 days on average relative to 1951-2020 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. However, if F. sylvatica adapts to future climate change by adopting the current strategy, the advance of the leaf-out date will weaken by 1.4 and 3.4 days under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Our results suggest that the European beech could slow down its spring phenological advances and reduce its spring frost risk if it adopts the current strategy to adapt to future climate change. |
| WOS关键词 | BUD-BURST ; GENETIC-VARIATION ; DORMANCY RELEASE ; THERMAL TIME ; BUDBURST ; TEMPERATURE ; RESPONSES ; FOREST ; SENSITIVITY ; PHOTOPERIOD |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Develop- ment Program of China[2018YFA0606102] ; National Natu- ral Science Foundation of China[41871032] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS[2018070] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000863258600004 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Develop- ment Program of China ; National Natu- ral Science Foundation of China ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/185058]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wang, Huanjiong |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, 19A Yuquan Rd, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, 11A Datun Rd, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Huanjiong,Lin, Shaozhi,Dai, Junhu,et al. Modeling the effect of adaptation to future climate change on spring phenological trend of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2022,846:13. |
| APA | Wang, Huanjiong,Lin, Shaozhi,Dai, Junhu,&Ge, Quansheng.(2022).Modeling the effect of adaptation to future climate change on spring phenological trend of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.).SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,846,13. |
| MLA | Wang, Huanjiong,et al."Modeling the effect of adaptation to future climate change on spring phenological trend of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.)".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 846(2022):13. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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