Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in associations of national population ageing with socioeconomic and environmental factors at the global scale
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wan, Qin8; Tang, Zhangying8; Pan, Jay3,9,10,11; Xie, Mingyu3,4,11; Wang, Shaobin5; Yin, Hao1,6,7; Li, Junming; Liu, Xin8; Yang, Yang8; Song, Chao2,3,4,9,10,11 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 373页码:13 |
| 关键词 | Global ageing Spatiotemporal nonstationarity Socioeconomic and environment Space-time relative importance of factors Spatiotemporal variance partitioning index Bayesian STVC model |
| ISSN号 | 0959-6526 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.133781 |
| 英文摘要 | Global concerted and sustained action is required under a rapid population ageing trend, while global ageing varies across countries in space and time. To support global action on sustainable development and healthy ageing, we investigated the spatiotemporal heterogeneity toward associations between national population ageing (the share of the population aged 65 and older) and various socioeconomic and environmental factors for 189 countries and territories from 2001 to 2020. We adopted Bayesian Spatiotemporally Varying Coefficients (STVC) model to fit the spatial and temporal heterogeneous associations among variables. The concept of variance partitioning was innovatively integrated into Bayesian STVC modeling to propose a spatiotemporal variance partitioning index (STVPI) for identifying the explainable percentage of influencing factors considering their spatiotemporal heterogeneous impacts. The results showed that global ageing had increased rapidly over the past 20 years, especially after 2009, and exhibited a clear geospatial agglomeration, with Europe and Africa possessing the highest and lowest regional ageing levels. The total explainable percentages of socioeconomic and environmental factors for global ageing were 61.85% [95% credible intervals (CIs): 58.57%-64.9%] and 37.40% (95% CIs: 34.38%-40.65%), respectively. Specifically, the cumulative explainable percentage of the five factors, male-to-female ratio, gross national income (GNI), particulate matter (2.5 )(PM2.5), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and temperature, exceeded 90%. Over time, the annual impacts of education, male-to -female ratio, and physicians were increasing year by year; in contrast, the annual impacts of hospital beds, GNI, NDVI, PM2.5, and precipitation showed downward trends. Geospatially, the country-scale impacts of all factors showed substantial geographical disparities globally but significant clusters regionally. According to country subgroups (not-ageing, ageing, aged, and hyper-aged society), sex ratio, national income, air quality, greenness, and climate consistently played essential roles across the subgroups of four ageing stages. Our findings focusing on spatiotemporal disparities toward ageing and its influencing factors are expected to inform the formation of differentiated policies tailored for different national contexts in response to global ageing. The STVC-based STVPI is promising to be used in broader natural and social sciences to determine the relative importance of potential influencing factors within spatiotemporal dimensions to real-world phenomena. |
| WOS关键词 | MODELS ; HEALTH ; INFERENCE ; VARIANCE ; DYNAMICS ; ISSUES |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[42071379] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71874116] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[72074163] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71904104] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41701448] ; Medical Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Health Commission[21PJ067] ; Research Center of Sichuan County Economy Development[xy2021018] ; Sichuan Science and Technology Department[2022YFS0052] ; Sichuan Science and Technology Department[2021YFQ0060] ; Sichuan Science and Technology Department[2022NSFSC0642] ; Soft Science Project of Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province[2019JDR0111] ; Fund for Introducing Talents of Sichuan University[YJ202157] ; Humanities and Social Sciences Research Fund Project of Southwest Petroleum University[2019RW021] ; Youth Science and Technology Innovation Team of Southwest Petroleum University[2019CXTD11] ; Chengdu Federation of Social Science Association[2021ZC003] |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000859331100001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Medical Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Health Commission ; Research Center of Sichuan County Economy Development ; Sichuan Science and Technology Department ; Soft Science Project of Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province ; Fund for Introducing Talents of Sichuan University ; Humanities and Social Sciences Research Fund Project of Southwest Petroleum University ; Youth Science and Technology Innovation Team of Southwest Petroleum University ; Chengdu Federation of Social Science Association |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/185193]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ British Columbia, Sch Populat & Publ Hlth, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada 2.Sect 3,16,South Renmin Rd, Chengdu 610044, Peoples R China 3.Sichuan Univ, West China Res Ctr Rural Hlth Dev, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, Peoples R China 4.Sichuan Univ, Hlth Ageing Res Ctr, West China PUMC CC Chen Inst Hlth, Chengdu 610044, Sichuan, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 6.Univ Southern Calif, Keck Sch Med, Los Angeles, CA 90033 USA 7.Univ Southern Calif, Dept Econ, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA 8.Southwest Petr Univ, Sch Geosci & Technol, State Key Lab Oil & Gas Reservoir Geol & Exploitat, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, Peoples R China 9.Sichuan Univ, West China Sch Publ Hlth, HEOA Grp, Chengdu 610044, Sichuan, Peoples R China 10.Sichuan Univ, West China Hosp 4, Chengdu 610044, Sichuan, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wan, Qin,Tang, Zhangying,Pan, Jay,et al. Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in associations of national population ageing with socioeconomic and environmental factors at the global scale[J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,2022,373:13. |
| APA | Wan, Qin.,Tang, Zhangying.,Pan, Jay.,Xie, Mingyu.,Wang, Shaobin.,...&Song, Chao.(2022).Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in associations of national population ageing with socioeconomic and environmental factors at the global scale.JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION,373,13. |
| MLA | Wan, Qin,et al."Spatiotemporal heterogeneity in associations of national population ageing with socioeconomic and environmental factors at the global scale".JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION 373(2022):13. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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