A Two-Stage Framework for Bias and Reliability Tests of Ensemble Hydroclimatic Forecasts
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhao, Tongtiegang2; Xiong, Shaotang2; Wang, Jiabiao2; Liu, Zhiyong2; Tian, Yu1; Yan, Denghua1; Zhang, Yongyong3; Chen, Xiaohong2; Wang, Hao1 |
| 刊名 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-09-01 |
| 卷号 | 58期号:9页码:22 |
| 关键词 | ensemble forecasts global precipitation predictive performance probability integral transform bias reliability |
| ISSN号 | 0043-1397 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2022WR032568 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Tongtiegang(zhaottg@mail.sysu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The popular probability integral transform (PIT) uniform plot presents informative empirical illustrations of five types of ensemble forecasts, that is, reliable, under-confident, over-confident, negatively biased and positively biased. This paper has built a novel two-stage framework upon the PIT uniform plot to quantitatively examine the forecast attributes of bias and reliability. The first stage utilizes the test statistic on bias to examine whether the mean of PIT values is equal to the theoretical mean of standard uniform distribution. Then, the second stage uses the test statistic on reliability to examine whether the mean squared deviation from the theoretical mean is equal to the theoretical variance of standard uniform distribution. Therefore, by using the two-tailed bootstrap hypothesis testing, the first stage identifies unbiased ensemble forecasts, negatively biased forecasts and positively biased forecasts; the second stage focuses on unbiased ensemble forecasts to furthermore identify reliable forecasts, under-confident forecasts and over-confident forecasts. Numerical experiments are devised for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Climate Forecast System version 2 ensemble forecasts of global precipitation. The results highlight the existence of various shapes of the PIT uniform plots. Due to extreme values of observed precipitation, the PIT uniform plots in some cases can substantially deviate from the 1:1 line even though the mean and variance of ensemble forecasts are respectively in accordance with the mean and variance of observations. Nevertheless, the two-stage framework along with the two test statistics serves as a robust tool for the verification of ensemble hydroclimatic forecasts. |
| WOS关键词 | PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION ; SKILL ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; MODEL |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program of China[2021YFC3001000] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51979295] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51861125203] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[51725905] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[52130907] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[U1911204] ; Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology[2019ZT08G090] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000861186700002 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and Technology |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/185382]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhao, Tongtiegang |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Guangzhou, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Tongtiegang,Xiong, Shaotang,Wang, Jiabiao,et al. A Two-Stage Framework for Bias and Reliability Tests of Ensemble Hydroclimatic Forecasts[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2022,58(9):22. |
| APA | Zhao, Tongtiegang.,Xiong, Shaotang.,Wang, Jiabiao.,Liu, Zhiyong.,Tian, Yu.,...&Wang, Hao.(2022).A Two-Stage Framework for Bias and Reliability Tests of Ensemble Hydroclimatic Forecasts.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,58(9),22. |
| MLA | Zhao, Tongtiegang,et al."A Two-Stage Framework for Bias and Reliability Tests of Ensemble Hydroclimatic Forecasts".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 58.9(2022):22. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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