Multi-Directional Rather Than Unidirectional Northward-Dominant Range Shifts Predicted under Climate Change for 99 Chinese Tree Species
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Guoqing1,2; Huang, Jinghua1,2 |
| 刊名 | FORESTS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 13期号:10页码:27 |
| 关键词 | range shift climate velocity climate change multi-directional and unidirectional projection method East Asian |
| DOI | 10.3390/f13101619 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Guoqing(liguoqing@nwsuaf.edu.cn) ; Huang, Jinghua(jhhuang@nwsuaf.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change has a profound impact on the distribution of species on Earth. At present, there are two contrasting views explaining the direction of species range shifts. One is a single poleward (northward in the Northern Hemisphere) view, while the other is a multi-directional view (e.g., westward, southward, and eastward). Exploring the universality of these two views has become a key focus in climate change ecology. Here, we study the habitat range shift velocity of 99 tree species in China under future climate change scenarios using a bioclimatic envelope model (also called species distribution model) and a climate velocity method. A Monte Carlo method is used to test the consistency between the range shift pattern and stochastic process, and confusion matrices and kappa values are calculated to evaluate the consistency between the bioclimatic envelope model and climate velocity method. The results indicate that the tree species in China are generally expected to shift northwards, with northwest and northeast directions accounting for a larger proportion. The northward-shifting species are mainly distributed in the east monsoon region of China, while the multi-directional shifting species are mainly distributed in the alpine and arid regions of China. The shift directions described by the bioclimatic envelope model are inconsistent with those described by the climate velocity method. The results imply that the tree species in China support the view of the northward shift pattern but, more specifically, should be considered in terms of a multi-directional northward shift pattern. The results also emphasize that the inter-species variation in climate tolerance has been largely ignored in physical-based climate velocity methods. The development of a biological and vector operation-based climate velocity indicator may be more useful in characterizing the range shifts of species, compared to existing physical and scalar operation-based climate velocity indicators. This study provides favorable evidence for the pattern of climate change-induced range shifts in China, as well as in Eastern Asia. |
| WOS关键词 | CONSERVATION ; VELOCITY ; SENSITIVITY ; AGREEMENT ; MIGRATION ; CAPACITY ; VARIABILITY ; VEGETATION ; TEMPERATE ; MOUNTAINS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[31971488] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31500449] |
| WOS研究方向 | Forestry |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000873022900001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/186092]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Guoqing; Huang, Jinghua |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Xianyang 712100, Peoples R China 2.Northwest A&F Univ, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Xianyang 712100, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Guoqing,Huang, Jinghua. Multi-Directional Rather Than Unidirectional Northward-Dominant Range Shifts Predicted under Climate Change for 99 Chinese Tree Species[J]. FORESTS,2022,13(10):27. |
| APA | Li, Guoqing,&Huang, Jinghua.(2022).Multi-Directional Rather Than Unidirectional Northward-Dominant Range Shifts Predicted under Climate Change for 99 Chinese Tree Species.FORESTS,13(10),27. |
| MLA | Li, Guoqing,et al."Multi-Directional Rather Than Unidirectional Northward-Dominant Range Shifts Predicted under Climate Change for 99 Chinese Tree Species".FORESTS 13.10(2022):27. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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