Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Song, Zhihong1,4; Xia, Jun1,3,4; She, Dunxian1,4; Li, Lingcheng2; Hu, Chen1,4; Hong, Si1,4 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2021-10-01 |
| 卷号 | 601页码:14 |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| 关键词 | Meteorological drought events CMIP6 SPI Mainland China Climate change |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126643 |
| 通讯作者 | Xia, Jun(xiaj@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; She, Dunxian(shedunxian@whu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Understanding drought dynamics spatially and temporally is essential for environmental and socio-economic systems, especially under climate change with expected increasing drought. This study aims to update the knowledge about drought spatiotemporal changes over mainland China in the 21st century by utilizing the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Precipitation from the nine CMIP6 models is first bias-corrected using a quantile mapping approach and then used to calculate the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the historical period and future three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). We conduct a clustering algorithm to identify three-dimensional (i.e., latitude, longitude, and time) drought events to access the drought dynamics in both space and time. Results show that the drought events occur more frequently during June to September than the other months for both historical and future periods. The drought frequency is significantly increasing during Sep-Dec in the 21st century (increase by about 8.5%, p-value<0.05). Compared with the historical period, drought centers shift toward south under the future projections, indicating a relatively high drought frequency in south China. Additionally, drought events are projected to have shorter duration, smaller affected area, but higher intensity under all three scenarios. The study contributes to our comprehensive understanding of how future drought characteristics will change due to climate change from the perspective of spatiotemporal dynamics. These results are helpful to drought risk management and provide information for developing drought adaptation strategies. |
| WOS关键词 | BIAS CORRECTION METHODS ; AREA-DURATION ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; HYDROLOGIC IMPACT ; SEVERITY INDEX ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; SIMULATIONS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41890823] ; National Key Research and Development Program of China[2016YFC0402709] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2042020kf0005] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000695816300059 |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Key Research and Development Program of China ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/165635]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Xia, Jun; She, Dunxian |
| 作者单位 | 1.Wuhan Univ, Hubei Key Lab Water Syst Sci Sponge City Construc, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China 2.Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Atmospher Sci & Global Change Div, Richland, WA 99354 USA 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 10010, Peoples R China 4.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Song, Zhihong,Xia, Jun,She, Dunxian,et al. Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2021,601:14. |
| APA | Song, Zhihong,Xia, Jun,She, Dunxian,Li, Lingcheng,Hu, Chen,&Hong, Si.(2021).Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,601,14. |
| MLA | Song, Zhihong,et al."Assessment of meteorological drought change in the 21st century based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble projections over mainland China".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 601(2021):14. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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