Changes in global heat waves and its socioeconomic exposure in a warmer future
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Yin, Cong1,2,3; Yang, Yaping1,2,4; Chen, Xiaona1,2; Yue, Xiafang1,2; Liu, Yangxiaoyue1,2; Xin, Ying1,2,3 |
| 刊名 | CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022 |
| 卷号 | 38页码:15 |
| 关键词 | Heat wave Exposure Risk SSPs Spatiotemporal Socioeconomic |
| ISSN号 | 2212-0963 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100459 |
| 通讯作者 | Yang, Yaping(yangyp@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Heat waves are continuous high temperature processes, which are defined as the daily maximum temperature exceeding the absolute-relative combined high temperature thresholds for more than three consecutive days in this study. Because of its unprecedented casualties, devastating com-pound disasters and irreversible deterioration trends, heat waves have attracted worldwide concern, while its global changes and socioeconomic impacts still need further study. Using three historical reanalysis data and multi scenario CMIP6 modeled data, Global Heat Wave Toolbox (GHWT) was developed to generate heat wave matrix from 1971 to 2100. The long-term changing characteristics of global heat waves were also analyzed. Next, population and GDP projections are employed to estimate future socioeconomic exposure and risks. The results show that except for high latitudes (latitude greater than 60?), high elevations and some coastal areas, heat waves have visited about 45% (+/- 3%) of the global land area (excluding Antarctica). North Africa, North Australia, South Asia, and the Arabian Peninsula are detected as high heat wave area, where experience more than three heat waves with total duration over 15 days annually. Additionally, the average growth rate of global heat waves under SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 may be 2-3 times and 3-5 times of that under SSP1 2.6, respectively. Under SSP2 4.5, there may be about 7.32 billion people exposed to heat waves in 2100, accounting for 82.65% of the global population. Economic exposure may reach $433.37 trillion in 2100, accounting for 82.23% of the total global economy in that year. India could have the highest population and economic exposure, follow by populous countries, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, and major economies, such as China and the United States. Under SSP1 2.6, the increase in heat waves may slow down significantly. Moreover, North Africa, Australia, and Brazil are identified as rapid heat wave growth area. Our study highlights the heat wave of future growth and its socioeconomic impacts, as well as the necessity for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. |
| WOS关键词 | MORTALITY ; CLIMATE ; IMPACT ; HEATWAVES ; VULNERABILITY ; TEMPERATURES ; DEFINITION ; HEALTH |
| 资助项目 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[2019QZKK09] ; Construction and Application Demonstration of a Mountain Disaster Risk Warning Platform Based on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence in the Eastern Edge of the Qinghai -Tibet Plateau[CAS-WX2021SF-0106-03] ; National Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure and Earth System Science Data Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences[2005DKA32300] ; Branch Center Project of Geography, Resources and Ecology of Knowledge Center for Chinese Engineering Sciences and Technology[CKCEST-2021-2-10] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000860985200002 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program ; Construction and Application Demonstration of a Mountain Disaster Risk Warning Platform Based on Big Data and Artificial Intelligence in the Eastern Edge of the Qinghai -Tibet Plateau ; National Earth System Science Data Sharing Infrastructure and Earth System Science Data Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Branch Center Project of Geography, Resources and Ecology of Knowledge Center for Chinese Engineering Sciences and Technology |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/185245]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Yang, Yaping |
| 作者单位 | 1.Natl Earth Syst Sci Data Ctr, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 4.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Resou, Nanjing 210023, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yin, Cong,Yang, Yaping,Chen, Xiaona,et al. Changes in global heat waves and its socioeconomic exposure in a warmer future[J]. CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT,2022,38:15. |
| APA | Yin, Cong,Yang, Yaping,Chen, Xiaona,Yue, Xiafang,Liu, Yangxiaoyue,&Xin, Ying.(2022).Changes in global heat waves and its socioeconomic exposure in a warmer future.CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT,38,15. |
| MLA | Yin, Cong,et al."Changes in global heat waves and its socioeconomic exposure in a warmer future".CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT 38(2022):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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