Assessment of climate change impacts on glacio-hydrological processes and their variations within critical zone
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Shafeeque, Muhammad2,7,8,9; Luo, Yi2,6,7; Arshad, Arfan5; Muhammad, Sher4; Ashraf, Muhammad3; Quoc Bao Pham1 |
| 刊名 | NATURAL HAZARDS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-10-14 |
| 页码 | 28 |
| ISSN号 | 0921-030X |
| 关键词 | Glacio-hydrological processes Climate change CMIP6 SSPs Upper Indus Basin Critical zone Future freshwater availability |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11069-022-05661-9 |
| 通讯作者 | Shafeeque, Muhammad(shafeeque@igsnrr.ac.cn) ; Quoc Bao Pham(phambaoquoc@tdmu.edu.vn) |
| 英文摘要 | The quantitative assessment of glacier changes and freshwater availability under future climate change is inevitable for sustainable water resources management and preventing natural disasters. Limiting the uncertainties in glacio-hydrological modeling and exploring spatiotemporal distributions of runoff and its components along the vertical profile are critical for such investigations. The present study quantifies glacio-hydrological changes using the Spatial Processes in HYdrology (SPHY) model forced by CMIP6 climate data (shared socioeconomic pathways: SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) over twenty-first century. The model was calibrated based on in situ glacier changes, snow cover changes, and streamflow records to avoid the risk of equifinality. Variations in vertical distribution of runoff components and their impact on glacio-hydrology were investigated using the critical zone approach. The projected remaining glacier area is 55 +/- 10%, 32 +/- 17%, and 15 +/- 5%, and freshwater availability is reduced by - 12 +/- 5%, - 30 +/- 7%, and - 36 +/- 6% in 2100, compared with 2005-2014, under SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, respectively. The average changes in snowmelt, glacier melt, baseflow, and rain-runoff contributions to total runoff under SSP245 are projected as 25 +/- 15%, - 30 +/- 11%, - 20 +/- 16%, and 242 +/- 71%, respectively. The critical zone (3500 - 5500 masl) contributes 63% of total runoff during the reference period, with a significant reduction (51-81%) in the projected period, indicating a diminishing influence of glacier runoff (with 50% reduction) in future hydrology compared with historical period. In turn, low flows (October-March) are projected to increase (9 - 58%), and high flows (April-September) will likely decrease (- 2 to - 13%). Warming temperature was identified as the dominant driver for the glacier area changes (r = - 0.85*) and total runoff (r = - 0.75*) at 0.05 level of significance. Our findings indicate a rainfall-runoff-dominant hydrological regime in future, highlighting critical freshwater availability conditions and associated socioeconomic risks in terms of agricultural applications and natural disasters. We recommend building infrastructure for water storage and conveyance in the Indus basin to prevent the adverse impacts of future climate change. |
| WOS关键词 | UPPER INDUS BASIN ; GLACIER MASS BALANCES ; HINDUKUSH-KARAKORAM-HIMALAYA ; DEBRIS-COVERED GLACIERS ; 20-1ST CENTURY ; RIVER FLOWS ; BALTORO GLACIER ; EVEREST REGION ; ICE ABLATION ; FUTURE |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation China[42150410387] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20060301] ; CAS-TWAS President's Fellowship Program ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)[03F0855B] |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000876041800005 |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; CAS-TWAS President's Fellowship Program ; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/186363]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Shafeeque, Muhammad; Quoc Bao Pham |
| 作者单位 | 1.Thu Dau Mot Univ, Inst Appl Technol, Thu Dau Mot, Vietnam 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modelling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Khawaja Fareed Univ Engn & Informat Technol, Dept Agr Engn, Rahim Yar Khan 64200, Pakistan 4.Int Ctr Integrated Mt Dev ICIMOD, Kathmandu, Nepal 5.Oklahoma State Univ, Dept Biosyst & Agr Engn, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA 6.CAS Res Ctr Ecol & Environm Cent Asia, Urumqi, Peoples R China 7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 8.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Nat Resources & Environm, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 9.Univ Bremen, Inst Geog, D-28359 Bremen, Germany |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shafeeque, Muhammad,Luo, Yi,Arshad, Arfan,et al. Assessment of climate change impacts on glacio-hydrological processes and their variations within critical zone[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2022:28. |
| APA | Shafeeque, Muhammad,Luo, Yi,Arshad, Arfan,Muhammad, Sher,Ashraf, Muhammad,&Quoc Bao Pham.(2022).Assessment of climate change impacts on glacio-hydrological processes and their variations within critical zone.NATURAL HAZARDS,28. |
| MLA | Shafeeque, Muhammad,et al."Assessment of climate change impacts on glacio-hydrological processes and their variations within critical zone".NATURAL HAZARDS (2022):28. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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