Analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics and future trends of flood extremes in the Dongting Lake Basin
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Gao, Yunpeng2; Xia, Jun1,3; Chen, Xingwei2; Zou, Lei1; Huang, Jie2; Yu, Jiarui4 |
刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES |
出版日期 | 2022-12-01 |
卷号 | 44页码:19 |
关键词 | Flood extreme Nonstationarity Future trend GAMLSS model Dongting Lake Basin |
DOI | 10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101217 |
通讯作者 | Xia, Jun(xiaj@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
英文摘要 | Study region: Dongting Lake Basin of China. Study focus: This study aimed to analyze the nonstationary characteristics and future trends of flood extremes in the Dongting Lake Basin. The spatiotemporal variations in the flood extremes that occurred over the past 60 years were explored using the trend-free prewhitening-MK (TFPW-MK) method, the nonstationary characteristics of flood extremes were detected using the Pettitt test, and the nonstationarity analysis was performed using the GAMLSS model. Furthermore, a combination of TFPW-MK and the Hurst exponent was employed to predict the future trends in flood extremes. New hydrological insights for the region: (1) Evident variations were observed in the flood extremes from most hydrometric stations. Among the 10 stations with a decreasing extreme trend, seven exhibited evident decreases. Such decreases probably result from the impact of water conservancy projects. Among the remaining six stations with an increasing extreme trend, two exhibited evident increases. Such increases probably result from the effect of highly extreme precipitation. (2) Flood extremes from most (9 of 16) stations showed nonstationarity. The lognormal distri-bution was the optimal distribution of extreme values for nonstationary stations, whereas the Gamma distribution was the optimal distribution of extreme values for stationary stations. Despite the preferable fitting efficiency of the GAMLSS model, its simulation performance for nonstationary stations that showed significant trends must be improved. (3) The flood extremes of the 14 stations will maintain existing trends in the future. The Xiangtan Station exhibited anti persistence and might show a decreasing trend in the future, whereas Shimen Station did not show persistence. |
WOS关键词 | RIVER-BASIN ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; STATIONARITY ; RESERVOIRS ; CLIMATE ; LOCATION ; INDEXES ; MODELS ; TESTS ; RISK |
资助项目 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; [XDA23040304] ; [41890823] |
WOS研究方向 | Water Resources |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | ELSEVIER |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000876530000003 |
资助机构 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/186411] |
专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
通讯作者 | Xia, Jun |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Fujian Normal Univ, Coll Geog Sci, Fuzhou 350007, Peoples R China 3.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn Sc, Wuhan 430000, Peoples R China 4.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao, Yunpeng,Xia, Jun,Chen, Xingwei,et al. Analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics and future trends of flood extremes in the Dongting Lake Basin[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,2022,44:19. |
APA | Gao, Yunpeng,Xia, Jun,Chen, Xingwei,Zou, Lei,Huang, Jie,&Yu, Jiarui.(2022).Analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics and future trends of flood extremes in the Dongting Lake Basin.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,44,19. |
MLA | Gao, Yunpeng,et al."Analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics and future trends of flood extremes in the Dongting Lake Basin".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 44(2022):19. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:地理科学与资源研究所
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