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An integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodology for maritime transportation of spent nuclear fuel based on event tree and hydrodynamic model

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Tao, Longlong1,2; Chen, Liwei2,3; Ge, Daochuan2; Yao, Yuantao2; Ruan, Fang1,2; Wu, Jie2; Yu, Jie2
刊名RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY
出版日期2022-11-01
卷号227
关键词Spent nuclear fuel Maritime transportation Multiple risk indicators IPRA Public radioactive risks
ISSN号0951-8320
DOI10.1016/j.ress.2022.108726
通讯作者Chen, Liwei(liwei.chen@hfnu.edu.cn) ; Ge, Daochuan(daochuan.ge@inest.cas.cn)
英文摘要Spent nuclear fuel maritime transportation (SNFMT) accident may cause radiation hazards to personnel, vessels, and the ocean environment. Current risk assessment methods of SNFMT lack full consideration and quantifi-cation of the risk indicators. In this work, an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) methodology incorporating multiple risk factors-based accident probability model and public dose-based radiological conse-quence model quantitatively is proposed for SNFMT. First, from the sociotechnical-environmental risk perspective, the SMCETC (Ship, Management, Crew, Environment, Tank, Channel) comprehensive risk indicators are identified for ET-FT modeling. Second, considering the effects of continuous emissions, water depth, tidal cycle, and radioactive decay, a shallow water equations-based hydrodynamic model is established to simulate the radionuclide concentration in coastal water. Third, the ET-FT model-based accident frequency and the radio-nuclide concentration-based population radiation consequence are integrated, and subsequently the public radioactive risks are obtained. Finally, a case study is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and value of the proposed method. The time-related public radioactive risks were quantified and 28 highly safety importance risk factors were found and ranked. The proposed IPRA methodology integrates deterministic and probabilistic modeling perspectives, and provides a comprehensive risk assessment tool for SNFMT.
WOS关键词BAYESIAN NETWORK ; MARINE TRANSPORTATION ; SAFETY ASSESSMENT ; ACCIDENT ; DISPERSION ; SIMULATION ; TOOL ; CONSEQUENCES ; SYSTEMS ; SEA
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[71901203] ; Natural Science Foundation of the Anhui Higher Education Institutions of China[KJ2020A0110] ; Outstanding Talent Support Program in University of Anhui Province[gxyq2022060] ; Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China[2022M713186]
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Operations Research & Management Science
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000856051100001
出版者ELSEVIER SCI LTD
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Natural Science Foundation of the Anhui Higher Education Institutions of China ; Outstanding Talent Support Program in University of Anhui Province ; Postdoctoral Science Foundation of China
源URL[http://ir.hfcas.ac.cn:8080/handle/334002/128948]  
专题中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院
通讯作者Chen, Liwei; Ge, Daochuan
作者单位1.Univ Sci & Technol China, Hefei 230026, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Nucl Energy Safety Technol, HFIPS, Hefei 230031, Peoples R China
3.Hefei Normal Univ, Sch Comp Sci & Technol, Hefei 230601, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Tao, Longlong,Chen, Liwei,Ge, Daochuan,et al. An integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodology for maritime transportation of spent nuclear fuel based on event tree and hydrodynamic model[J]. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,2022,227.
APA Tao, Longlong.,Chen, Liwei.,Ge, Daochuan.,Yao, Yuantao.,Ruan, Fang.,...&Yu, Jie.(2022).An integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodology for maritime transportation of spent nuclear fuel based on event tree and hydrodynamic model.RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY,227.
MLA Tao, Longlong,et al."An integrated probabilistic risk assessment methodology for maritime transportation of spent nuclear fuel based on event tree and hydrodynamic model".RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY 227(2022).

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：合肥物质科学研究院

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