Weather Index Insurance Can Offset Heat-Induced Rice Losses Under Global Warming
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, J.2,3,4,5; Zhang, Z.2,3,4,6; Wang, C. Z.7,8; Wang, X. H.7; Zhang, L. L.2,3,4,6; Ma, X. L.10; Tao, F. L.1,9,11 |
| 刊名 | EARTHS FUTURE
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 10期号:11页码:15 |
| DOI | 10.1029/2021EF002534 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Z.(zhangzhao@bnu.edu.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Extreme heat is one major warming-related threat to food security and farmers' livelihood, especially in Asia. As an economic adaptation, weather index insurance (WII) can transfer such weather-related risks, secure farms' incomes, and recover agricultural systems soon after yield losses. However, few relevant studies evaluate its potential in the warming future. Here, we investigated the efficiency of WII to compensate for future heat-induced yield losses (YHloss ${Y}_{Hloss}$) under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 (Shared Socioecomoic Pathways, SSP) in southern China, a typical smallholder-dominated rice production area in the world. Combining a crop model with machine learning, we found that heat-induced rice vulnerability showed large spatial variability. Rice vulnerability and warming scenarios co-determined future YHloss ${Y}_{Hloss}$ and economic losses at the county scale, with more significant losses in the mid-far future (2051-2100) than in the near future (2021-2050). Compared with the historical period (1961-2010), YHloss ${Y}_{Hloss}$ will increase approximately by up to 5% under SSP1-2.6, 18% under SSP3-7.0%, and 26% under SSP5-8.5. As an ex-ante strategy, county-specific WII will effectively improve (by up to 13%) and stabilize (by up to 36%) farmers' incomes, even though the pure premium rate will increase by 10% at 2050 and by 30% at 2100. Overall, our study demonstrates that WII is an effective economic adaption in the future for assisting smallholder livelihood in a developing country. WII has the potential to be applied in other countries for other crop failures to mitigate climate-related risk for global food systems in the future. |
| WOS关键词 | HIGH-TEMPERATURE STRESS ; CROP INSURANCE ; CLIMATE TRENDS ; ELEVATED CO2 ; CHINA ; AGRICULTURE ; YIELD ; RISK ; PRODUCTIVITY ; DISASTERS |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000889477000001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/187530]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Z. |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Minist Emergency Management, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 4.Minist Educ, Beijing, Peoples R China 5.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 6.Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Natl Safety & Emergency Management, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Sino French Inst Earth Syst Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 8.Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res ZALF, Muncheberg, Germany 9.Nat Resources Inst Finland Luke, Helsinki, Finland 10.Tsinghua Univ, Sch Publ Policy & Management, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, J.,Zhang, Z.,Wang, C. Z.,et al. Weather Index Insurance Can Offset Heat-Induced Rice Losses Under Global Warming[J]. EARTHS FUTURE,2022,10(11):15. |
| APA | Zhang, J..,Zhang, Z..,Wang, C. Z..,Wang, X. H..,Zhang, L. L..,...&Tao, F. L..(2022).Weather Index Insurance Can Offset Heat-Induced Rice Losses Under Global Warming.EARTHS FUTURE,10(11),15. |
| MLA | Zhang, J.,et al."Weather Index Insurance Can Offset Heat-Induced Rice Losses Under Global Warming".EARTHS FUTURE 10.11(2022):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。