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Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Shulei7; Zhou, Liming4; Zhang, Lu2,6; Yang, Yuting5; Wei, Zhongwang7; Zhou, Sha1; Yang, Dawen5; Yang, Xiaofan1; Wu, Xiuchen1; Zhang, Yongqiang3
刊名NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
出版日期2022-11-28
卷号12页码:1160-1167
ISSN号1758-678X
DOI10.1038/s41558-022-01539-7
英文摘要An intensified hydrological cycle with global warming is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. However, whether and to what extent the enhanced extreme precipitation translates into changes in river floods remains controversial. Here we demonstrate that previously reported unapparent or even negative responses of river flood discharge (defined as annual maximum discharge) to extreme precipitation increases are largely caused by mixing the signals of floods with different generating mechanisms. Stratifying by flood type, we show a positive response of rainstorm-induced floods to extreme precipitation increases. However, this response is almost entirely offset by concurrent decreases in snow-related floods, leading to an overall unapparent change in total global floods in both historical observations and future climate projections. Our findings highlight an increasing rainstorm-induced flood risk under warming and the importance of distinguishing flood-generating mechanisms in assessing flood changes and associated social-economic and environmental risks. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, but how this translates into changes in river floods is not clear. Here, the authors show that changes in river flood discharge differ between flood types, with increases in rainfall-induced floods and decreases in snow-related floods.
WOS关键词EXPLORING CONTROLS ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; RAINFALL ; INCREASE ; RISK
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42088101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42175168] ; Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)[311021009] ; US National Science Foundation (NSF)[AGS-1952745] ; US National Science Foundation (NSF)[AGS-1854486]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
出版者NATURE PORTFOLIO
WOS记录号WOS:000889386700002
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) ; US National Science Foundation (NSF)
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/187572]  
专题陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文
作者单位1.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.SUNY Albany, Dept Atmospher & Environm Sci, Albany, NY 12222 USA
5.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Hydraul Engn, State Key Lab Hydrosci & Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China
6.CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia
7.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab Zhuhai, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Shulei,Zhou, Liming,Zhang, Lu,et al. Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2022,12:1160-1167.
APA Zhang, Shulei.,Zhou, Liming.,Zhang, Lu.,Yang, Yuting.,Wei, Zhongwang.,...&Dai, Yongjiu.(2022).Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,12,1160-1167.
MLA Zhang, Shulei,et al."Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 12(2022):1160-1167.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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