Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Stream Flow in Soan River Basin (Pakistan)
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Ismail, Muhammad3,5; Ahmed, Ehtesham1; Peng, Gao2,3,5; Xu, Ruirui2,3,5; Sultan, Muhammad4; Khan, Farhat Ullah3; Aleem, Muhammad4 |
| 刊名 | WATER
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 14期号:22页码:22 |
| 关键词 | Soan River Basin (SRB) climate change GCMs SWAT prediction RCP 4 5 RCP 8 5 |
| DOI | 10.3390/w14223695 |
| 通讯作者 | Peng, Gao(gaopeng@ms.iswc.ac.cn) ; Sultan, Muhammad(muhammadsultan@bzu.edu.pk) |
| 英文摘要 | The global hydrological cycle is susceptible to climate change (CC), particularly in underdeveloped countries like Pakistan that lack appropriate management of precious freshwater resources. The study aims to evaluate CC impact on stream flow in the Soan River Basin (SRB). The study explores two general circulation models (GCMs), which involve Access 1.0 and CNRM-CM5 using three metrological stations (Rawalpindi, Islamabad, and Murree) data under two emission scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs), such as RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5. The CNRM-CM5 was selected as an appropriate model due to the higher coefficient of determination (R-2) value for future the prediction of early century (2021-2045), mid-century (2046-2070), and late century (2071-2095) with baseline period of 1991-2017. After that, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was utilized to simulate the stream flow of watersheds at the SRB for selected time periods. For both calibration and validation periods, the SWAT model's performance was estimated based on the coefficient of determination (R-2), percent bias (PBIAS), and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The results showed that the average annual precipitation for Rawalpindi, Islamabad, and Murree will be decrease by 43.86 mm, 60.85 mm, and 86.86 mm, respectively, while average annual maximum temperature will be increased by 3.73 degrees C, 4.12 degrees C, and 1.33 degrees C, respectively, and average annual minimum temperature will be increased by 3.59 degrees C, 3.89 degrees C, and 2.33 degrees C, respectively, in early to late century under RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5. Consequently, the average annual stream flow will be decreased in the future. According to the results, we found that it is possible to assess how CC will affect small water regions in the RCPs using small scale climate projections. |
| WOS关键词 | LAND-USE ; HYDROLOGIC IMPACT ; WATER-RESOURCES ; SWAT ; CALIBRATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; CATCHMENT ; ENSEMBLE ; PRECIPITATION ; SIMULATIONS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2243211] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000887777900001 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/187665]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Peng, Gao; Sultan, Muhammad |
| 作者单位 | 1.Tech Univ Dresden, Inst Urban & Ind Water Management, D-01069 Dresden, Germany 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Northwest A&F Univ, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dry Land Farming Loess, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 4.Bahauddin Zakariya Univ, Dept Agr Engn, Multan 60800, Pakistan 5.Chinese Acad Sci & Minist Water Resources, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dry Land Farming Loess, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ismail, Muhammad,Ahmed, Ehtesham,Peng, Gao,et al. Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Stream Flow in Soan River Basin (Pakistan)[J]. WATER,2022,14(22):22. |
| APA | Ismail, Muhammad.,Ahmed, Ehtesham.,Peng, Gao.,Xu, Ruirui.,Sultan, Muhammad.,...&Aleem, Muhammad.(2022).Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Stream Flow in Soan River Basin (Pakistan).WATER,14(22),22. |
| MLA | Ismail, Muhammad,et al."Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on the Stream Flow in Soan River Basin (Pakistan)".WATER 14.22(2022):22. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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