Analysis of the Future Evolution of Biocapacity and Landscape Characteristics in the Agro-Pastoral Zone of Northern China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Niu, Xiaoyu1,2,3; Hu, Yunfeng2,3; Zhen, Lin2,3; Wang, Yiming1,2,3; Yan, Huimin2,3 |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 19期号:23页码:19 |
| 关键词 | land use land cover biocapacity landscape index model simulation dynamic change forecasting method |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijerph192316104 |
| 通讯作者 | Hu, Yunfeng(huyf@lreis.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | The Agro-Pastoral Zone of Northern China (AZNC) is an ecologically fragile zone. It is a challenge to create scientifically sound plans for environmental conservation and agro-pastoral development due to the lack of future evolution prediction, and analysis of biocapacity (BC) and landscape characteristics. Using the Globeland30 dataset from 2000 to 2020, this study simulated 2030 land use/land cover (LULC) scenarios, and analyzed the future evolution of BC and landscape patterns. The results show that: (1) The Logistic and CA-Markov models can reasonably simulate the LULC changes in the research area, with ROC indices over 0.9 and Kappa approaching 0.805, after considering the driving factors such as physical geography, regional climate, and socio-economic development. (2) From 2000 to 2030, the spatial distribution pattern of LULC does not change significantly, and cultivated land, grassland, and forest are still the dominant land types in the research area. The regional BC exhibits an increasing trend (+4.55 x 10(6) gha/a), and the spatial distribution pattern of BC is similar to that of LULC. (3) Changes in land miniaturization, landscape fragmentation, and decreased aggregation can be seen in the entire AZNC and specific land categories, including cultivated land, grassland, and forest. The study provides suggestions for formulating the AZNC's future ecological protection and agro-pastoral development strategies, and guidance for the LULC simulation in other agro-pastoral zones. |
| WOS关键词 | NET PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; CA-MARKOV MODEL ; ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT ; LAND-USE ; HUMAN APPROPRIATION ; URBAN-GROWTH ; PATTERN ; URBANIZATION ; SERVICES ; CLUE |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000896403600001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/187780]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Hu, Yunfeng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Yangtze Univ, Sch Geosci, Wuhan 430100, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Niu, Xiaoyu,Hu, Yunfeng,Zhen, Lin,et al. Analysis of the Future Evolution of Biocapacity and Landscape Characteristics in the Agro-Pastoral Zone of Northern China[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2022,19(23):19. |
| APA | Niu, Xiaoyu,Hu, Yunfeng,Zhen, Lin,Wang, Yiming,&Yan, Huimin.(2022).Analysis of the Future Evolution of Biocapacity and Landscape Characteristics in the Agro-Pastoral Zone of Northern China.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,19(23),19. |
| MLA | Niu, Xiaoyu,et al."Analysis of the Future Evolution of Biocapacity and Landscape Characteristics in the Agro-Pastoral Zone of Northern China".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 19.23(2022):19. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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