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High emissions could increase the future risk of maize drought in China by 60-70 %

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Jia, Huicong5,6; Chen, Fang2,5,6; Zhang, Chuanrong1,4; Dong, Jinwei3; Du, Enyu2,5,6; Wang, Lei5,6
刊名SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
出版日期2022-12-15
卷号852页码:11
关键词CMIP6 Shared socioeconomic pathway China Agricultural drought Drought risk
ISSN号0048-9697
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158474
通讯作者Chen, Fang(chenfang_group@radi.ac.cn)
英文摘要Drought events have considerable direct and indirect economic, environmental, and social impacts, but few studies have analyzed and assessed future changes in drought disasters from a risk perspective to guide responses and adaptations thoroughly. Studying the potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield is therefore urgently needed. Intercomparison of the three Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios based drought risks and yield loss of China was carried out using the climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), and the hotspots of high drought risk regions were identified. This study found that the areas affected by severe maize drought (loss ratio larger than 0.2) accounted for 16.13 %, 20.79 %, and 18.87 % of the total national corn areas under three low, medium-to-high and high emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) respectively. The northwest China maize region, the ecotone between agriculture and animal husbandry, and the western central northern China maize region have relatively high loss risk. Compared with SSP1-2.6, the yield loss rates increased with 70.73 % and 61.52 % of national corn areas for SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. There is a decrease in the areas with low-risk and a significant increase in the areas with high-risk for SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 compared to the SSP1-2.6. These results may provide theoretical support for agricultural drought risk reduction and adaptation planning to ensure food security under climate change.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH ; EPIC MODEL ; SCENARIO FRAMEWORK ; CROP-YIELD ; VULNERABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; DATASET ; GROWTH ; CMIP6 ; INDEX
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19030101] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19030404] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42171078] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41871345] ; China-ASEAN Big Earth Data Platform and Applications (CADA)[guikeAA20302022]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000888813000005
出版者ELSEVIER
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China-ASEAN Big Earth Data Platform and Applications (CADA)
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/187905]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Chen, Fang
作者单位1.Univ Connecticut, Ctr Environm Sci & Engn, Storrs, CT 06269 USA
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.Univ Connecticut, Dept Geog, Storrs, CT 06269 USA
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Digital Earth Sci, Aerosp Informat Res Inst, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China
6.Int Res Ctr Big Data Sustainable Dev Goals, 9 Dengzhuang South Rd, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Jia, Huicong,Chen, Fang,Zhang, Chuanrong,et al. High emissions could increase the future risk of maize drought in China by 60-70 %[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2022,852:11.
APA Jia, Huicong,Chen, Fang,Zhang, Chuanrong,Dong, Jinwei,Du, Enyu,&Wang, Lei.(2022).High emissions could increase the future risk of maize drought in China by 60-70 %.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,852,11.
MLA Jia, Huicong,et al."High emissions could increase the future risk of maize drought in China by 60-70 %".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 852(2022):11.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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