Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Bai Yun1,2; Wang Shouyang1,3; Zhang Xun1,3 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-06-20 |
| 页码 | 24 |
| 关键词 | ARIMAX artificial neural network composite index forecasting foreign trade Granger causality test survey data |
| ISSN号 | 1009-6124 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11424-022-1015-x |
| 英文摘要 | Business survey, which starts from the microeconomic level, is a widely used short-term forecasting tool in practice. In this study, the authors examine whether foreign trade survey data collected by China's Ministry of Commerce would provide reliable forecasts of China's foreign trade. The research procedure is designed from three perspectives including forecast information test, turning point forecast, and out-of-sample value forecast. First, Granger causality test detects whether survey data lead exports and imports. Second, business cycle analysis, a non-model based method, is performed. The authors construct composite indexes with business survey data to forecast turning points of foreign trade. Third, model-based numerical forecasting methods, including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) and the artificial neural networks (ANNs) models are estimated. Empirical results show that survey data granger cause imports and exports, the leading composite index provides signal for changes of trade cycles, and quantitative models including survey data generate more accurate forecasts than benchmark models. It is concluded that trade survey data has excellent predictive capabilities for imports and exports, which can offer some priorities for government policy-making and enterprise decision making. |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[71422015] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[71988101] ; National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| WOS研究方向 | Mathematics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000813601100006 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER HEIDELBERG |
| 源URL | [http://ir.amss.ac.cn/handle/2S8OKBNM/61211]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院 |
| 通讯作者 | Bai Yun |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Acad Math & Syst Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Forecasting Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bai Yun,Wang Shouyang,Zhang Xun. Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?[J]. JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,2022:24. |
| APA | Bai Yun,Wang Shouyang,&Zhang Xun.(2022).Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?.JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY,24. |
| MLA | Bai Yun,et al."Foreign Trade Survey Data: Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?".JOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE & COMPLEXITY (2022):24. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：数学与系统科学研究院
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