Resilience assessment of the cobalt supply chain in China under the impact of electric vehicles and geopolitical supply risks
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Liu, Wei1; Li, Xin1; Liu, Chunyan3; Wang, Minxi1; Liu, Litao2 |
| 刊名 | RESOURCES POLICY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023 |
| 卷号 | 80页码:18 |
| ISSN号 | 0301-4207 |
| 关键词 | Electric vehicles Geopolitical risk Supply disruption Supply chain resilience System dynamics |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.resourpol.2022.103183 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Xin(lixin2012@cdut.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | Cobalt, one of the essential new energy materials, is widely applied in many crucial industries. In recent years, the rapid development of electric vehicles (EVs) has led to increased cobalt demand, and geopolitical changes have increased the risk of cobalt supply disruption. To investigate the impact of geopolitical risks and demand shocks of EVs on the cobalt supply chain system, we applied the system dynamics model to assess the cobalt supply chain resilience and construct four subsystems of price, production capacity, supply, and demand to explore the resilience mechanism of the cobalt supply chain. Through Vensim simulation experiments, three resilience enhancement measures from recycling technology, inventory, and material substitution under the impact of the EVs demand and geopolitical supply risks are used as model scenarios. The research results revealed that the cobalt supply chain is less resilient under the impact of EVs and geopolitical risks. The reduction of cobalt imports under geopolitical risks has a direct impact on cobalt prices and produces a superimposed effect. When a 20%, 50%, and 100% reduction in China's cobalt imports due to geopolitical events, the cobalt price rises from 2026 by 8.24%, 10.67%, and 15.01% in 2027, respectively, compared to the baseline scenario, to reach the maximum cobalt price in 2028. The improvement in recycling technology makes the Chinese cobalt supply chain more resilient, as evidenced by capacity growth. A 33% improvement in recovery technology, increasing cobalt supply capacity by 12.57% and relieving supply pressure by 16.47% under cobalt supply disruptions. Inventory is one of the apparent improvements in the cobalt supply chain to respond to shocks in EV demand. Material substitution improves resilience in both scenarios, but is less effective in supply disruptions under geopolitical risk shocks. |
| WOS关键词 | LITHIUM ; BATTERIES ; METALS ; MODEL ; SUSTAINABILITY ; PERFORMANCE ; TRADE ; FLOWS |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Philosophy and Social Science Research Fund of the Chengdu University of Technology ; Key Project of the Chengdu University of Technology for First class Disci-pline Construction ; [71991484] ; [71991481] ; [YJ2021-XP004] ; [ZDJS202202] |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER SCI LTD |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000911291100001 |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Philosophy and Social Science Research Fund of the Chengdu University of Technology ; Key Project of the Chengdu University of Technology for First class Disci-pline Construction |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/189045]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Xin |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chengdu Univ Technol, Coll Management Sci, Chengdu 610059, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Chengdu Technol Univ, Sch Automat & Elect Engn, Chengdu 610031, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Liu, Wei,Li, Xin,Liu, Chunyan,et al. Resilience assessment of the cobalt supply chain in China under the impact of electric vehicles and geopolitical supply risks[J]. RESOURCES POLICY,2023,80:18. |
| APA | Liu, Wei,Li, Xin,Liu, Chunyan,Wang, Minxi,&Liu, Litao.(2023).Resilience assessment of the cobalt supply chain in China under the impact of electric vehicles and geopolitical supply risks.RESOURCES POLICY,80,18. |
| MLA | Liu, Wei,et al."Resilience assessment of the cobalt supply chain in China under the impact of electric vehicles and geopolitical supply risks".RESOURCES POLICY 80(2023):18. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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