Hydrometeorological triggering of periglacial debris flows using a Bayesian approach: a case study of the Hailuogou Gully region, China
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Wang, Zheng5,6; Chen, Ningsheng3,4,6; Hu, Guisheng6; Zhang, Yong2; Wang, Genxu6; Han, Zheng1 |
刊名 | NATURAL HAZARDS |
出版日期 | 2023-01-02 |
页码 | 18 |
ISSN号 | 0921-030X |
关键词 | Periglacial debris flows Meteorological causes Bayesian probability Early warning threshold |
DOI | 10.1007/s11069-022-05788-9 |
英文摘要 | Many debris flows have occurred in small basins with a small glacier cover or snow cover in periglacial areas, suddenly caused high mortality and great damage. The hydrometeorological conditions that caused such debris flows are complex, making forecasting and early warning difficult. Previous studies for these small-glacial-covered basins have primarily considered rainfall as the only inducing factor of debris flows, and often the effects of temperature are neglected. Thus, we carried out a probabilistic analysis of variables derived from hydrometeorological factors for the Mount Gongga region, Sichuan, China, where debris flows were recorded on 14 days between 1988 and 2019. By analyzing hydrological characteristics when debris flows occurred, three distinct dominant trigger types could be identified. The results show that seven (50%) of the observed debris flow events during the study period, high-intensity rainfall was the dominant trigger, snowmelt by high temperature was identified as the dominant trigger for 2 (14%). Furthermore, five (36%) debris flow events could be attributed to the combined effects of long-lasting (or short-medium) rainfall and sustained higher temperatures. We find that the differences between the trigger types are statistically significant, and a susceptibility prediction differentiating between trigger types can outperform simple rainfall-only situations. This study contributes to an improved understanding of the hydrometeorological impact on debris flow initiation in high elevation watersheds. |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL THRESHOLDS ; SHALLOW LANDSLIDES ; DURATION CONTROL ; SLOPE FAILURES ; INITIATION ; INTENSITY ; VARIABLES ; SNOWMELT ; GLACIER ; FLOODS |
资助项目 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) of China[2019QZKK0902] ; Key R&D Projects of Tibet Autonomous Region Sichuan Science and Technology Project[XZ202101ZD0013G] ; International Cooperation Overseas Platform Project CAS[131C11KYSB20200033] |
WOS研究方向 | Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources |
语种 | 英语 |
出版者 | SPRINGER |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000906379600001 |
资助机构 | Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP) of China ; Key R&D Projects of Tibet Autonomous Region Sichuan Science and Technology Project ; International Cooperation Overseas Platform Project CAS |
源URL | [http://ir.imde.ac.cn/handle/131551/57098] |
专题 | 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室 成都山地灾害与环境研究所_山地表生过程与生态调控重点实验室 |
通讯作者 | Chen, Ningsheng |
作者单位 | 1.Cent South Univ, Sch Civil Engn, Changsha 410075, Peoples R China 2.Anyang Inst Technol, Sch Civil & Architectural Engn, Anyang 455099, Peoples R China 3.Tribhuvan Univ, Chinese Acad Sci, Kathmandu Ctr Res & Educ, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 4.Acad Plateau Sci & Sustainabil, Xining 810016, Peoples R China 5.Shanghai Construction 1 Grp Co Ltd, Shanghai 200120, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Zheng,Chen, Ningsheng,Hu, Guisheng,et al. Hydrometeorological triggering of periglacial debris flows using a Bayesian approach: a case study of the Hailuogou Gully region, China[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2023:18. |
APA | Wang, Zheng,Chen, Ningsheng,Hu, Guisheng,Zhang, Yong,Wang, Genxu,&Han, Zheng.(2023).Hydrometeorological triggering of periglacial debris flows using a Bayesian approach: a case study of the Hailuogou Gully region, China.NATURAL HAZARDS,18. |
MLA | Wang, Zheng,et al."Hydrometeorological triggering of periglacial debris flows using a Bayesian approach: a case study of the Hailuogou Gully region, China".NATURAL HAZARDS (2023):18. |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:成都山地灾害与环境研究所
其他版本
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。