Flood variability in the upper Yangtze River over the last millennium-Insights from a comparison of climate-hydrological model simulated and reconstruction
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Huo, Ran5,6; Chen, Hua5,6; Li, Lu4; Xu, Chong-Yu3,6; Li, Jingjing6; Hong, Si6; Zhan, Chesheng2; Xia, Jun1,6 |
| 刊名 | SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
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| 出版日期 | 2023-01-19 |
| 页码 | 21 |
| ISSN号 | 1674-7313 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Flood variability Paleoflood records Climate-hydrological model Upper Yangtze River |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11430-022-1008-5 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, Hua(chua@whu.edu.cn) ; Xu, Chong-Yu(c.y.xu@geo.uio.no) |
| 英文摘要 | Understanding hydrological responses to rising levels of greenhouse gases are essential for climate and impact research. It is, however, often limited by a lack of long record of observational data to provide a basis for understanding the long-term behavior of the climate system. Integrating reconstructed data and (global climate and hydrological) model simulations will help us to better understand the variability of climate and hydrology over timescales ranging from decades to centuries. In this study, we proposed an integrated approach to study flood variability in the upper reach of the Yangtze River over the last millennium to the end of the 21st century. To accomplish this, we first drove hydrological models using the precipitation and temperature from four Global Climate Models (GCM), BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC, MRI-CGCM3, and CCSM4, to simulate daily discharge for the upper reach of the Yangtze River during the period of the last millennium (850-1849), historical period (1850-2005), and a future period (2006-2099). Then, we evaluated whether the modeled precipitation, temperature, and extreme discharge had statistical properties similar to those shown in the documented dry-wet periods, temperature anomalies, and paleoflood records. Finally, we explored the extreme discharge variability using model simulations. The results indicate that: (1) The MIROC-ESM model, differing from the other three GCM models, revealed positive temperature changes from the warm period (Medieval Climate Anomaly; MCA) to the cold period (Little Ice Age; LIA), while the temperature variability of the other models was similar to the records. (2) The BCC-CSM1.1 model performed better than the others regarding correlations between modeled precipitation and documented dry-wet periods. (3) Over most of the subbasins in the upper Yangtze River, the magnitude of extreme discharge in the BCC-CSM1.1 model results showed that there was a decrease from the MCA to the LIA period and an increase in the historical period relative to the cold period, while a future increase was projected by the four GCMs under the influence of climate change. |
| WOS关键词 | CHANGE IMPACTS ; HYDROCLIMATE VARIABILITY ; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; FREQUENCY ; UNCERTAINTY ; MAGNITUDE ; CMIP5 |
| 资助项目 | National Key Research and Development Program[2017YFA0603702] ; Research Council of Norway (FRINATEK)[274310] |
| WOS研究方向 | Geology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000919020700002 |
| 资助机构 | National Key Research and Development Program ; Research Council of Norway (FRINATEK) |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/189245]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related & Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Ecosyst Network Observat & Modeling, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, POB 1047, N-0316 Oslo, Norway 4.NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Jahnebakken 5, N-5007 Bergen, Norway 5.Wuhan Univ, Hubei Prov Key Lab Water Syst Sci Sponge City Cons, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China 6.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn Sc, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Huo, Ran,Chen, Hua,Li, Lu,et al. Flood variability in the upper Yangtze River over the last millennium-Insights from a comparison of climate-hydrological model simulated and reconstruction[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2023:21. |
| APA | Huo, Ran.,Chen, Hua.,Li, Lu.,Xu, Chong-Yu.,Li, Jingjing.,...&Xia, Jun.(2023).Flood variability in the upper Yangtze River over the last millennium-Insights from a comparison of climate-hydrological model simulated and reconstruction.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,21. |
| MLA | Huo, Ran,et al."Flood variability in the upper Yangtze River over the last millennium-Insights from a comparison of climate-hydrological model simulated and reconstruction".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES (2023):21. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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