Urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under carbon peak and neutrality goals: A case study of Guangzhou, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Hu Xintao2,3; Li Zhihui2,4; Cai Yumei1; Wu Feng2,4 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-11-01 |
| 卷号 | 32期号:11页码:2251-2270 |
| ISSN号 | 1009-637X |
| 关键词 | carbon peak and neutrality goals urban construction land demand prediction spatial pattern simulation Guangzhou |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11442-022-2046-x |
| 通讯作者 | Wu Feng(wufeng@igsnrr.ac.in) |
| 英文摘要 | Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions. Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals (hereafter "dual carbon" goals) is important for territorial spatial planning. This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land, and then modified the construction land demand prediction model. Thereafter, an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under "dual carbon" goals was developed, where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types. Using Guangzhou as a case study, the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030-2060 under baseline development and "dual carbon" goals scenarios. The simulation results showed that Guangzhou's urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030, with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend. Guangzhou's urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030-2060, with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%, and a centralized spatial pattern trend. Under the "dual carbon" goal scenario, Guangzhou's urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030. Compared with the baseline development scenario, urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030-2060 is slower, with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%, and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent. Furthermore, land maintenance and growth, that is, a carbon sink, is more obvious under the "dual carbon" goals scenario, with the forest land area nearly 10.6% higher than that under the baseline development scenario. The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under "dual carbon" goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning, aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning. |
| WOS关键词 | ENERGY-CONSUMPTION ; STIRPAT MODEL ; EMISSIONS ; MULTIPLE ; CITY ; DYNAMICS ; DRIVERS ; ECONOMY ; RIVER |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41971233] |
| WOS研究方向 | Physical Geography |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000880339400007 |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/186643]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Wu Feng |
| 作者单位 | 1.Minist Nat Resources Peoples Republ China, Res Ctr Terr Spatial Planning, Beijing 100812, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.China Agr Univ, Coll Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Hu Xintao,Li Zhihui,Cai Yumei,et al. Urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under carbon peak and neutrality goals: A case study of Guangzhou, China[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,2022,32(11):2251-2270. |
| APA | Hu Xintao,Li Zhihui,Cai Yumei,&Wu Feng.(2022).Urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under carbon peak and neutrality goals: A case study of Guangzhou, China.JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES,32(11),2251-2270. |
| MLA | Hu Xintao,et al."Urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under carbon peak and neutrality goals: A case study of Guangzhou, China".JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES 32.11(2022):2251-2270. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。