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Valuation of Land-Use/Land-Cover-Based Ecosystem Services in Afghanistan-An Assessment of the Past and Future

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Najmuddin, Omaid1; Li, Zhihui2; Khan, Rabnawaz1; Zhuang, Weiqing1
刊名LAND
出版日期2022-11-01
卷号11期号:11页码:32
关键词ecosystem services value value coefficient DLS scenario analysis land use change
DOI10.3390/land11111906
通讯作者Najmuddin, Omaid(61202001@fjut.edu.cn) ; Li, Zhihui(lizhihui@igsnrr.ac.cn)
英文摘要Being one of the weakest economies in the world, livelihoods in Afghanistan remain highly dependent on local ecosystem services. However, the risk of ecosystem services degradation in Afghanistan over the past two decades has significantly increased, mainly due to rapid changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC). As such, policy makers must be able to estimate the impact of LULC changes on various ecosystem services. By utilizing GlobeLand30 land cover products for 2000, 2010 and 2020, and by adopting the value transfer method, this study assessed the ecosystem services value (ESV) changes in response to the changes of LULC in Afghanistan. Additionally, the dynamics of the land system (DLS) model was innovatively coupled with linear programming to predict likely scenarios of ESV changes by 2030. The predicted results were also validated against actual land cover and achieved a Kappa value of 0.78. The results showed that over the 20-year period, ecologically important LULC categories such as forest, water bodies and grassland were severely unstable and rapidly decreasing in scope. These LULC types were being threatened by agricultural, built-up and unused lands. During this period, we estimated a decrease in the total ESV from 161 billion USD in 2000 to 152.27 billion USD in 2020. About 92% of this decrease was shared by supporting and provisioning services. The simulated scenarios also showed that ESV will likely further decrease under Business-As-Usual (BAU), and Rapid Economic Development (RED) scenarios. Positively, an Environmental Protection (ENP) scenario is predicted, with a 4.5% increase in ESV by 2030. However, achieving this scenario requires the enforcement of strict environmental protection measures.
WOS关键词USE CHANGE IMPACTS ; RIVER-BASIN ; SCENARIO ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DYNAMICS ; BENEFITS ; PROVISION ; DRIVERS ; VALUES ; MODEL
资助项目Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA20010302]
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
语种英语
出版者MDPI
WOS记录号WOS:000881098600001
资助机构Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/187015]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Najmuddin, Omaid; Li, Zhihui
作者单位1.Fujian Univ Technol, Sch Internet Econom & Business, 3 Xueyuan Rd, Fuzhou 350118, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Najmuddin, Omaid,Li, Zhihui,Khan, Rabnawaz,et al. Valuation of Land-Use/Land-Cover-Based Ecosystem Services in Afghanistan-An Assessment of the Past and Future[J]. LAND,2022,11(11):32.
APA Najmuddin, Omaid,Li, Zhihui,Khan, Rabnawaz,&Zhuang, Weiqing.(2022).Valuation of Land-Use/Land-Cover-Based Ecosystem Services in Afghanistan-An Assessment of the Past and Future.LAND,11(11),32.
MLA Najmuddin, Omaid,et al."Valuation of Land-Use/Land-Cover-Based Ecosystem Services in Afghanistan-An Assessment of the Past and Future".LAND 11.11(2022):32.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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