Decomposing the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin: Insights from regional differences and spatial correlations of multiple factors
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Chen, Ting1,2; Zou, Lei1; Xia, Jun1,2; Liu, Huiyuan2; Wang, Feiyu1 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2022-12-01 |
| 卷号 | 615页码:15 |
| 关键词 | Budyko equations Regional differences Spatial correlations Multiple factors Runoff changes |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128649 |
| 通讯作者 | Zou, Lei(zoulei@igsnrr.ac.cn) |
| 英文摘要 | On large scales, runoff changes are complex due to the regional differences in basin characteristics and in-teractions among multiple influencing factors. Accurately and quantitatively decomposing the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in large basins with significant spatial heterogeneity remains a challenge. In this paper, the fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm was used to identify the regional differences in hydrological processes of the Yangtze River Basin (YZRB) based on multiple factors. Then, regional Budyko equations with synthetic parameters were constructed for runoff decomposition using the hierarchical Bayesian model, considering the spatial correlations of multiple factors among basins. Results showed that 44 subbasins in the YZRB can be clustered into five clusters based on 10 factors including precipitation, temperature, precipi-tation seasonality, vegetation coverage, saturated hydraulic conductivity, elevation, slope, topographic wetness index, irrigation water consumption, and proportion of built-up area per unit area. From Cluster 1 to 5, P, T, IRR, and B decreased from about 1400 mm, 17 degrees C, 57.9 mm, and 1.59 % to about 870 mm, 12 degrees C, 15.6 mm, and 0.40 %, respectively, while ELEV and SLP increased from about 300 m and 3 degrees to about 3500 m and 10 degrees, respectively. Hierarchical Bayesian models can improve the performance of Budyko equations by better-simulating n, compared with linear regression models. Their R2, RB, and RMSE for the whole YZRB were as follows: 0.9104 versus 0.7591, 4.33 % versus 8.21 %, and 0.06 versus 0.11, respectively. Runoff decomposition from 1982 to 2018 showed that precipitation led to more than 34 % change in runoff in Cluster 2, while the influence of potential evapotranspiration on runoff changes was less than 3.00 % in each cluster. Rising temperature caused runoff to decrease by more than 7.90 % in Cluster 1, 3, and 4. In addition, precipitation seasonality, vegetation, and irrigation water consumption had different influences in different clusters. This study improves the ability of the Budyko equation to quantitatively decompose the impacts of multiple factors on regional runoff changes and provides more reasonable suggestions for water resource management. |
| WOS关键词 | HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN MODEL ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; TEMPORAL VARIABILITY ; LOESS PLATEAU ; LOW FLOWS ; CHINA ; PATTERNS ; FLOOD ; SCALE ; NDVI |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Founda-tion of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; [41890822] ; [42101043] ; [2021M703178] ; [XDA23040304] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000895769500003 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Founda-tion of China ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/188548]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Zou, Lei |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn Sc, Wuhan 430072, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Ting,Zou, Lei,Xia, Jun,et al. Decomposing the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin: Insights from regional differences and spatial correlations of multiple factors[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2022,615:15. |
| APA | Chen, Ting,Zou, Lei,Xia, Jun,Liu, Huiyuan,&Wang, Feiyu.(2022).Decomposing the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin: Insights from regional differences and spatial correlations of multiple factors.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,615,15. |
| MLA | Chen, Ting,et al."Decomposing the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin: Insights from regional differences and spatial correlations of multiple factors".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 615(2022):15. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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