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A LASSO-Based Prediction Model for Child Influenza Epidemics: A Case Study of Shanghai, China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhu, Jin6,7; Xu, Yu6; Yu, Guangjun8; Gao, Jie1; Liu, Yuan5; Cheng, Dayu4; Song, Ci7; Chen, Jie7; Pei, Tao2,3,7
刊名MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN ENGINEERING
出版日期2022-12-12
卷号2022页码:14
ISSN号1024-123X
DOI10.1155/2022/1775630
通讯作者Zhu, Jin(zhujin@usts.edu.cn) ; Pei, Tao(peit@lreis.ac.cn)
英文摘要Child influenza is an acute infectious disease that places substantial burden on children and their families. Real-time accurate prediction of child influenza epidemics can aid scientific and timely decision-making that may reduce the harm done to children infected with influenza. Several models have been proposed to predict influenza epidemics. However, most existing studies focus on adult influenza prediction. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using the LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) model to predict influenza-like illness (ILI) levels in children between 2017 and 2020 in Shanghai, China. The performance of the LASSO model was compared with that of other statistical influenza-prediction techniques, including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), random forest (RF), ordinary least squares (OLS), and long short-term memory (LSTM). The LASSO model was observed to exhibit superior performance compared to the other candidate models. Owing to the variable shrinkage and low-variance properties of LASSO, it eliminated unimportant features and avoided overfitting. The experimental results suggest that the LASSO model can provide useful guidance for short-term child influenza prevention and control for schools, hospitals, and governments.
WOS关键词INFECTION ; COMMUNITY
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Mathematics
语种英语
出版者HINDAWI LTD
WOS记录号WOS:000903867500005
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/189766]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Zhu, Jin; Pei, Tao
作者单位1.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Childrens Hosp, Dept Infect Control, Shanghai, Peoples R China
2.Jiangsu Ctr Collaborat Innovat Geog Informat Reso, Nanjing, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Hebei Univ Engn, Sch Min & Geomat, Handan, Peoples R China
5.Shanghai Things Link Intelligent Technol Co Ltd, Shanghai, Peoples R China
6.Suzhou Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci & Geomat Engn, Suzhou, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China
8.Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai Childrens Hosp, Engn Res Ctr Big Data Pediat Precis Med, Sch Med, Shanghai, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhu, Jin,Xu, Yu,Yu, Guangjun,et al. A LASSO-Based Prediction Model for Child Influenza Epidemics: A Case Study of Shanghai, China[J]. MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN ENGINEERING,2022,2022:14.
APA Zhu, Jin.,Xu, Yu.,Yu, Guangjun.,Gao, Jie.,Liu, Yuan.,...&Pei, Tao.(2022).A LASSO-Based Prediction Model for Child Influenza Epidemics: A Case Study of Shanghai, China.MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN ENGINEERING,2022,14.
MLA Zhu, Jin,et al."A LASSO-Based Prediction Model for Child Influenza Epidemics: A Case Study of Shanghai, China".MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN ENGINEERING 2022(2022):14.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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