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Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Cheng, Weibin7,8; Zhou, Hanchu6,7; Ye, Yang7; Chen, Yifan7; Jing, Fengshi5; Cao, Zhidong3,4; Zeng, Daniel Dajun3,4; Zhang, Qingpeng1,2,7
刊名CHAOS
出版日期2023
卷号33期号:1页码:8
ISSN号1054-1500
DOI10.1063/5.0123870
通讯作者Zeng, Daniel Dajun(dajun.zeng@ia.ac.cn) ; Zhang, Qingpeng(qingpeng.zhang@cityu.edu.hk)
英文摘要The accumulation of susceptible populations for respiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) when COVID-19-targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were in place might pose a greater risk of future RID outbreaks. We examined the timing and magnitude of RID resurgence after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs and assessed the burdens on the health system. We proposed the Threshold-based Control Method (TCM) to identify data-driven solutions to maintain the resilience of the health system by re-introducing NPIs when the number of severe infections reaches a threshold. There will be outbreaks of all RIDs with staggered peak times after lifting COVID-19-targeted NPIs. Such a large-scale resurgence of RID patients will impose a significant risk of overwhelming the health system. With a strict NPI strategy, a TCM-initiated threshold of 600 severe infections can ensure a sufficient supply of hospital beds for all hospitalized severely infected patients. The proposed TCM identifies effective dynamic NPIs, which facilitate future NPI relaxation policymaking.
WOS关键词PNEUMONIA REQUIRING HOSPITALIZATION ; CORONAVIRUS DISEASE 2019 ; NONPHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS ; SYNCYTIAL VIRUS ; INFLUENZA ; IMPACT ; DYNAMICS
资助项目Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[11218221] ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[C7154-20GF] ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[C7151-20GF] ; Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China[C1143-20GF]
WOS研究方向Mathematics ; Physics
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000917936100004
出版者AIP Publishing
资助机构Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
源URL[http://ir.ia.ac.cn/handle/173211/51431]  
专题舆论大数据科学与技术应用联合实验室
通讯作者Zeng, Daniel Dajun; Zhang, Qingpeng
作者单位1.Univ Hong Kong, LKS Fac Med, Dept Pharmacol & Pharm, Hong Kong 999077, Peoples R China
2.City Univ Hong Kong, Shenzhen Res Inst, Shenzhen 518057, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, State Key Lab Management & Control Complex Syst, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
5.Univ North Carolina Chapel Hill, Sch Med, UNC Project China, UNC Global, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA
6.Cent South Univ, Sch Traff & Transportat Engn, Changsha 410075, Peoples R China
7.City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Data Sci, Hong Kong 999077, Peoples R China
8.Guangdong Second Prov Gen Hosp, Inst Healthcare Artificial Intelligence Applicat, Guangzhou 510317, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Cheng, Weibin,Zhou, Hanchu,Ye, Yang,et al. Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong[J]. CHAOS,2023,33(1):8.
APA Cheng, Weibin.,Zhou, Hanchu.,Ye, Yang.,Chen, Yifan.,Jing, Fengshi.,...&Zhang, Qingpeng.(2023).Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong.CHAOS,33(1),8.
MLA Cheng, Weibin,et al."Future trajectory of respiratory infections following the COVID-19 pandemic in Hong Kong".CHAOS 33.1(2023):8.

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来源：自动化研究所

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