Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Ming-Gang; Zhou, Zhe-Kun; Chen, Wen-Yun; Cannon, Charles H.; Raes, Niels6; Slik, J. W. Ferry |
| 刊名 | DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
 |
| 出版日期 | 2014 |
| 卷号 | 20期号:4页码:405-415 |
| 关键词 | Climate change conservation strategies emigrants extinction risk immigrants species distribution model |
| ISSN号 | 1366-9516 |
| DOI | 10.1111/ddi.12165 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | AimA wide range of forests distributed across steep environmental gradients are found in Yunnan, southwest China. Climate change could profoundly change these forests by affecting species ranges. We produce predictions about species suitable habitat shifts and use these to (1) evaluate species range size change, loss and turn-over under no- and full-dispersal and nine climate change scenarios and (2) identify environmental variables responsible for current species richness and future local species losses. LocationYunnan Province, Southwest China. MethodsUsing MaxEnt, we modelled current distributions of 2319 woody plant species, corrected for collecting bias and found that 1996 had significant spatial association with environmental factors. Using three General Circulation Models (GCMs: CGCM, CSIRO and HADCM3) for the years 2070-2099 (2080s), based on three emission scenarios for each GCM (A1b, A2a and B2a), we predicted the future geographic position of suitable habitat for each species. ResultsAlthough most species were predicted to persist within Yunnan, with a maximum extinction rate of c.6% under the most extreme climate change scenario, up to 1400 species (of the 1996 tested) are expected to lose more than 30% of their current range under the most extreme climate change scenario. Assuming no- or unlimited dispersal minimally affected these outcomes. Species losses were associated with increasing temperature variability and declining precipitation during the dry season. Main conclusionsTo conserve Yunnan's woody flora, management efforts should focus on providing elevational migration routes at local scales, with priority for those areas located within previously identified conservation hotspots. As almost all species show range contractions, storage of genetic diversity in seed banks and botanical gardens would be sensible. A change in Yunnan's conservation policy will be needed to counter the predicted negative impacts of climate change on its flora. |
| 学科主题 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology |
| 出版地 | HOBOKEN |
| 电子版国际标准刊号 | 1472-4642 |
| WOS关键词 | EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSES ; SEED DISPERSAL ; BIODIVERSITY ; CONSERVATION ; RICHNESS ; DIVERSITY ; MIGRATION ; MODEL ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; ADAPTATION |
| WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000332445900004 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 资助机构 | NWO - ALW [819.01.014] |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/27202]  |
| 专题 | 植被与环境变化国家重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Ctr Integrated Conservat, Plant Geog Lab, Menglun 666303, Yunnan, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Biogeog & Biodivers, Kunming Inst Bot, Kunming 650204, Yunnan, Peoples R China 5.Cannon, Charles H.] Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Trop Forest Ecol, Xishuangbanna Trop Bot Garden, Menglun 666303, Yunnan, Peoples R China 6.Cannon, Charles H.] Texas Tech Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Lubbock, TX 79409 USA 7.Nat Biodivers Ctr, Sect Bot, NL-2333 CR Leiden, Netherlands |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Ming-Gang,Zhou, Zhe-Kun,Chen, Wen-Yun,et al. Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China[J]. DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,2014,20(4):405-415. |
| APA | Zhang, Ming-Gang,Zhou, Zhe-Kun,Chen, Wen-Yun,Cannon, Charles H.,Raes, Niels,&Slik, J. W. Ferry.(2014).Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,20(4),405-415. |
| MLA | Zhang, Ming-Gang,et al."Major declines of woody plant species ranges under climate change in Yunnan, China".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 20.4(2014):405-415. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：植物研究所
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