Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Yinbo1; Wang, Yuzhuo1; Zhang, Minggang1,2; Ma, Keping2
|
| 刊名 | CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN
 |
| 出版日期 | 2014 |
| 卷号 | 59期号:34页码:4652-4659 |
| 关键词 | Climate change Maxent Species distribution modeling Protected plants Immigrants Emigrants |
| ISSN号 | 1001-6538 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11434-014-0642-6 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change poses major new challenges to biodiversity conservation. Distribution ranges of species have been proven to be affected by climate anomalies. Detecting the extent of protected species response to climate change can help formulate flexible conservation strategies to overcome the changing climate. Using species distribution modeling and high resolution climate data, we simulated current distribution patterns of 233 protected plants in China. Those patterns were then projected into future suitable habitats for each species under nine climate change scenarios, with no migration or full migration hypotheses. Under the most extreme climate change scenario (CGCM-B2a), we evaluated species extinction risks. Sixteen percent of protected plants are expected to lose more than 30 % of their current ranges. By calculating areal shifts, hotspots for emigrants, immigrants, and persistent species were identified under climate change. Flexible conservation strategies were addressed for those regions. Those strategies strongly depend on the migration types of species and sensitivity of the hotspots to changing climate. In hotspots for emigrants, the main conservation strategy is ex situ protection; protected species from these regions should be stored in seed banks or botanical gardens. For hotspots of immigrants, enough space should be maintained for new species, and some measures are necessary to assist dispersal. For hotspots of persistent species, more natural reserves are needed. We highlight related fields that can help conserve protected species in the future, such as conserving the soil seed bank and understanding of the effects of migration ability and interactions between protected species. |
| 学科主题 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| 出版地 | BEIJING |
| 电子版国际标准刊号 | 1861-9541 |
| WOS关键词 | SELECTING THRESHOLDS ; SAMPLE-SIZE ; CONSERVATION ; PREDICTION ; FACE ; BIODIVERSITY ; PERFORMANCE ; MANAGEMENT ; PATTERNS ; IMPACTS |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000344614800003 |
| 出版者 | SCIENCE PRESS |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China [31100392] ; National Science and Technology Support Program [2012BAC01B05] |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/27225]  |
| 专题 | 植被与环境变化国家重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Shanxi Univ, Coll Environm & Resource Sci, Taiyuan 030006, Peoples R China 2.Shanxi Univ, Inst Loess Plateau, Taiyuan 030006, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Yinbo,Wang, Yuzhuo,Zhang, Minggang,et al. Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling[J]. CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN,2014,59(34):4652-4659. |
| APA | Zhang, Yinbo,Wang, Yuzhuo,Zhang, Minggang,&Ma, Keping.(2014).Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling.CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN,59(34),4652-4659. |
| MLA | Zhang, Yinbo,et al."Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling".CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN 59.34(2014):4652-4659. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：植物研究所
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