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  4. 中国科学院地球与行星物理重点实验室
Prediction of geosynchronous electron fluxes using an artificial neural network driven by solar wind parameters

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Wang, Jianhang1; Guo, Deyu1; Xiang, Zheng1,2; Ni, Binbin1; Liu, Yangxizi1; Dong, Junhu1
刊名ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH
出版日期2023
卷号71期号:1页码:275-285
ISSN号0273-1177
关键词Flux prediction Artificial neural network Geosynchronous orbit Solar wind parameters
DOI10.1016/j.asr.2022.10.013
英文摘要There are hundreds of satellites operating at the geosynchronous (GEO) orbit where relativistic electrons can cause severe damage. Thus, predicting relativistic electron fluxes is significant for spacecraft safety. In this study, using GOES satellite data during 2011-2020, we propose two neural network models with two hidden layers to predict geosynchronous relativistic electron fluxes at two energy chan-nels (>0.8 MeV and > 2 MeV). The number of input neurons of the two channels (>0.8 MeV and > 2 MeV) are determined to be 36 and 44, respectively. The > 0.8 MeV model has 22 and 9 neurons in the hidden layers, while the > 2 MeV model has 25 and 15 neurons in the hidden layers. The input parameters include the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind speed, solar wind dynamic pressure and solar wind proton density. Through the analysis of different time delays, we determine that the optimal time delays of two energy channels (>0.8 MeV and > 2 MeV) are 8 days and 10 days, respectively. The training set and validation set (Jan 2011-Dec 2018) are divided by the 10-fold cross-validation method, and the remaining data (Jan 2019-Feb 2020) is used to analyze the model performance as a test set. The prediction results of both energy channels show good agreement with satellite observations indi-cated by low RMSE (-0.3 cm-2sr-1s-1), high PE (-0.8) and CC (-0.9). These results suggest that only using solar wind parameters is capable of obtaining reasonable predictions of geosynchronous relativistic electron fluxes.(c) 2022 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
WOS关键词RADIATION BELT ELECTRONS ; GEOSTATIONARY ORBIT ; MAGNETOSPHERIC PLASMA ; MODEL ; MECHANISMS ; DROPOUTS ; POINT ; WAVES
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[42188101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42174190] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42025404] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41904143] ; China National Space Administration[D020308] ; China National Space Administration[D020104] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[2042021kf0016] ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB41000000] ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences[DQXX2021-04] ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project[2019M662700]
WOS研究方向Engineering ; Astronomy & Astrophysics ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
语种英语
出版者ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS记录号WOS:000913077100001
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; China National Space Administration ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; B-type Strategic Priority Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; open project of Key Laboratory of Earth and Planetary Physics, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project ; China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Project
源URL[http://ir.iggcas.ac.cn/handle/132A11/106854]  
专题地质与地球物理研究所_中国科学院地球与行星物理重点实验室
通讯作者Xiang, Zheng
作者单位1.Wuhan Univ, Sch Elect Informat, Dept Space Phys, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geol & Geophys, Key Lab Earth & Planetary Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Wang, Jianhang,Guo, Deyu,Xiang, Zheng,et al. Prediction of geosynchronous electron fluxes using an artificial neural network driven by solar wind parameters[J]. ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH,2023,71(1):275-285.
APA Wang, Jianhang,Guo, Deyu,Xiang, Zheng,Ni, Binbin,Liu, Yangxizi,&Dong, Junhu.(2023).Prediction of geosynchronous electron fluxes using an artificial neural network driven by solar wind parameters.ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH,71(1),275-285.
MLA Wang, Jianhang,et al."Prediction of geosynchronous electron fluxes using an artificial neural network driven by solar wind parameters".ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH 71.1(2023):275-285.

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来源：地质与地球物理研究所

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