Medium- and long-term prediction of length-of-day changes with the combined singular spectrum analysis and neural networks
文献类型:期刊论文
作者 | Lei, Yu3; Zhao, Danning2; Guo, Min1 |
刊名 | STUDIA GEOPHYSICA ET GEODAETICA
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关键词 | length-of-day prediction singular spectrum analysis neural networks |
ISSN号 | 0039-3169;1573-1626 |
DOI | 10.1007/s11200-022-0558-6 |
产权排序 | 3 |
英文摘要 | Real-time estimates of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are currently unavailable for users owing to the delay caused by complex data processing and heavy computation procedures. Accurate short-term predictions of the EOP are therefore essential for several real-time applications such as navigation and tracking of interplanetary spacecrafts and precise orbit determination of Earth satellites, whilst medium- and long-term predictions are required for Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) autonomous satellite navigation, climate forecasting as well as for astrogeodynamic studies. Universal time (UT1-UTC) or its first time derivative, length of day (& UDelta;LOD), representing the changes of the Earth's rotation rate, are the most challenging to predict among the EOP. Various methods and techniques have been used to improve & UDelta;LOD predictions since the present prediction accuracy is yet unsatisfactory even up a few days into the future. This study employs a popular time-series analysis method, called singular spectrum analysis (SSA), in combination with the neural network (NN) technique for medium- and long-term prediction of & UDelta;LOD up to 2 years in the future. The SSA is first applied to extracting the predominant periodic components including annual and semiannual oscillations and irregular short-period signals in & UDelta;LOD data. These extracted predominant periodic components are then extrapolated by the proposed SSA-based data filling strategy. Next, the residuals (the difference between these predominant components and the data themselves) are modeled and predicted by the NN technique. The predicted & UDelta;LOD value is sum of the extrapolation of the predominant periodic components and the prediction of the residuals. The results show that the accuracy of the 180-day ahead predictions is worse than that by the combination of least squares (LS) extrapolation and a stochastic method including autoregressive and NN technology in terms of the mean absolute prediction error. However, the proposed SSA extrapolation in combination with NN modeling can achieve a noticeably better accuracy for the medium- and long-term predictions out 180 days than the combined LS + stochastic technology. The improvement in the prediction accuracy for lead time of 1 year and 2 years can reach up to 53% and 56%, respectively. The combined SSA extrapolation and NN modeling is thus very promising for medium- and long-term prediction of ALOD. |
语种 | 英语 |
WOS记录号 | WOS:001023676900002 |
出版者 | SPRINGER |
源URL | [http://ir.opt.ac.cn/handle/181661/96643] ![]() |
专题 | 西安光学精密机械研究所_光电测量技术实验室 |
通讯作者 | Lei, Yu |
作者单位 | 1.Xian Inst Opt & Precis Mech, Chinese Acad Sci, Xian 710119, Peoples R China 2.Baoji Univ Arts & Sci, Sch Elect & Elect Engn, Baoji 721016, Peoples R China 3.Xian Univ Posts & Telecommun, Sch Comp Sci & Technol, Shuyuan Rd 3, Xian 710121, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lei, Yu,Zhao, Danning,Guo, Min. Medium- and long-term prediction of length-of-day changes with the combined singular spectrum analysis and neural networks[J]. STUDIA GEOPHYSICA ET GEODAETICA. |
APA | Lei, Yu,Zhao, Danning,&Guo, Min. |
MLA | Lei, Yu,et al."Medium- and long-term prediction of length-of-day changes with the combined singular spectrum analysis and neural networks".STUDIA GEOPHYSICA ET GEODAETICA |
入库方式: OAI收割
来源:西安光学精密机械研究所
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