中国科学院机构知识库网格
Chinese Academy of Sciences Institutional Repositories Grid
A Hybrid Mathematical Models for Predicting Global Climate Change

文献类型:会议论文

作者Chen, Taoyue3; Zhang, Zhaoyue3; Yi, Zilu3; Xu, Wenxi3; Yang, Kai1,2
出版日期2023
会议日期2023-02-25
会议地点Shenyang, PEOPLES R CHINA
关键词Carbon Dioxide Concentration Global Temperature Greenhouse Effects ARIMA LSTM SARIMA Global Warming
DOI10.1109/ACCTCS58815.2023.00052
页码357-367
英文摘要

The industrial revolution marked the beginning of modernization in human civilization, and also marked the sharp rise in greenhouse gas emissions and global temperatures. To better understand trends in global climate change, we aim to utilize data on carbon dioxide levels and land-ocean temperatures to learn past trends and predict future changes. First, the CO2 concentration dataset, using statistical methods, is analyzed and visualized. From the statistical summary and graphs, it can be concluded that the global CO2 level has been constantly increasing since the 1960s. Based on the dataset, three models were constructed to analyze the changing trend of CO2 levels in the past and extrapolate the future: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), grey forecast, and a more refined prediction model that considers factors affecting CO2 levels with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). All three models disagree that the CO2 level will reach 685 PPM by 2050. And each model predicts CO2 level of 685 PPM will be reached by the end of the century and when. Afterward, the pros and cons of the models are compared. Second, the model of the changes in global land-ocean temperature is constructed. ARIMA is used to model and predict the upcoming temperature and the time when it is going to reach certain designated points. Pearson's correlation shows a strong correlation between global temperature and CO2 level. Hence, these two variables are modeled with linear regression. However, the regression-based predictions did not match the forecast from earlier models, so an refined model incorporating more variables and perspectives was built. The refined model is a more bottom-up approach. It quantifies the radiative forcing of individual factors and makes predictions based on the predicted outcomes of each factor. The model predicts the temperature difference of 3.55 degrees C from the base period, 1.25 degrees C in 2031, 1.5 degrees C in 2039, and 2 degrees C in 2052.

产权排序3
会议录2023 3RD ASIA-PACIFIC CONFERENCE ON COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY AND COMPUTER SCIENCE, ACCTCS
会议录出版者IEEE COMPUTER SOC
语种英语
ISBN号979-8-3503-1080-1
WOS记录号WOS:001031393400066
源URL[http://ir.opt.ac.cn/handle/181661/96672]  
专题西安光学精密机械研究所_光学影像学习与分析中心
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xian Inst Opt & Precis Mech, Xian, Peoples R China
2.Univ Technol, Sanya Sci & Educ Innovat Pk Wuhan, Sanya, Peoples R China
3.Amazingx Acad, Foshan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Chen, Taoyue,Zhang, Zhaoyue,Yi, Zilu,et al. A Hybrid Mathematical Models for Predicting Global Climate Change[C]. 见:. Shenyang, PEOPLES R CHINA. 2023-02-25.

入库方式: OAI收割

来源:西安光学精密机械研究所

浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。