A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Zhang, Tianyi; Simelton, Elisabeth1,2; Huang, Yao3 ; Shi, Ying4
|
| 刊名 | AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2013 |
| 卷号 | 178页码:56-65 |
| 关键词 | Drought Water availability Irrigation Bayesian formula Climate change |
| ISSN号 | 0168-1923 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.06.002 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Crop models often simulate drought impacts with full and no irrigation scenarios, while planners are more interested in whether the current available irrigation water can cope with the future more serious droughts. This paper addresses a key constraint common to modeling studies: the limited representation of actual irrigation water supply. We present a data-driven approach to identify a benchmark for agronomic drought risk levels as defined by water availability thresholds at the baseline climate (1980-2008) using reported crop yields, climate and irrigation statistics. Then, holding the current irrigation supplies, we adopted Bayesian formula to estimate magnitude of the future water availability and the associated probability of crops yields being decreased to rainfall-deficiency under climate conditions in 2030s (2020-2040) based on the RegCM3 climate model output driven by IPCC SRES A1B scenario. Results reveal that future drought stress would overwhelm the irrigation capacity of current supplies in northern and western China, while drought remains at baseline climate levels in the central, eastern and southern regions. The largest increases in the probability of projected drought risk were in northeast and southwest, ranging from 14% to 28% above baseline climate. Regional drought impacts for grain self sufficiency are discussed. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| 学科主题 | Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 出版地 | AMSTERDAM |
| 电子版国际标准刊号 | 1873-2240 |
| WOS关键词 | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; USE EFFICIENCY ; IMPACTS ; RESOLUTION ; MONSOON ; RICE ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; URBANIZATION ; AGRICULTURE ; VARIABILITY |
| WOS研究方向 | Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000322349800007 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | External Cooperation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Chinese Academy of Sciences) ; National Natural Science Foundation of China(National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)) |
| 源URL | [http://ir.ibcas.ac.cn/handle/2S10CLM1/27966]  |
| 专题 | 植被与环境变化国家重点实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 3.Univ Leeds, Ctr Climate Change Econ & Policy, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 5.World Agroforestry Ctr, Hanoi, Vietnam |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Tianyi,Simelton, Elisabeth,Huang, Yao,et al. A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China[J]. AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,2013,178:56-65. |
| APA | Zhang, Tianyi,Simelton, Elisabeth,Huang, Yao,&Shi, Ying.(2013).A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,178,56-65. |
| MLA | Zhang, Tianyi,et al."A Bayesian assessment of the current irrigation water supplies capacity under projected droughts for the 2030s in China".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 178(2013):56-65. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：植物研究所
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