Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Xie, Xiaolan; Hao, Mengmeng; Ding, Fangyu; Ide, Tobias; Helman, David; Scheffran, Juergen; Wang, Qian; Qian, Yushu; Chen, Shuai; Wu, Jiajie |
| 刊名 | HELIYON
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-06-01 |
| 卷号 | 9期号:6页码:e17182 |
| ISSN号 | 2405-8440 |
| 关键词 | COVID-19 Conflict risk Causal link Structural equation model Boosted regression trees |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17182 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Objectives: Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change. Methodology: Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and nonclimate data covering the period 2020-2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors. Findings: The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk. Conclusion: COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change. Implications: Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies. |
| WOS关键词 | ARMED CONFLICT ; INEQUALITIES ; VARIABILITY ; VIOLENCE ; AFRICA |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | CELL PRESS |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001043481800001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/194607]  |
| 专题 | 资源利用与环境修复重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Murdoch University 2.University of Oxford 3.Hebrew University of Jerusalem 4.University of Hamburg 5.Chinese Academy of Sciences 6.Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS 7.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xie, Xiaolan,Hao, Mengmeng,Ding, Fangyu,et al. Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change[J]. HELIYON,2023,9(6):e17182. |
| APA | Xie, Xiaolan.,Hao, Mengmeng.,Ding, Fangyu.,Ide, Tobias.,Helman, David.,...&Jiang, Dong.(2023).Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change.HELIYON,9(6),e17182. |
| MLA | Xie, Xiaolan,et al."Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change".HELIYON 9.6(2023):e17182. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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