Geographical evolutionary pathway of global tuberculosis incidence trends
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Lei, Yanhui1; Wang, Jinfeng1; Wang, Yang1; Xu, Chengdong1 |
| 刊名 | BMC PUBLIC HEALTH
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-04-24 |
| 卷号 | 23期号:1页码:755 |
| 关键词 | Tuberculosis Stratified heterogeneity Geographical evolutionary pathway Geotree |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12889-023-15553-7 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | BackgroundsTuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health and human development problem, especially in developing countries. Despite the effectiveness of directly observed therapy, short course programs in reducing transmission and progression of TB, poverty reduction and socioeconomic development remain crucial factors in decreasing TB incidence. However, the geographical pathway on the planet is not yet clear.ObjectivesThis study was to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB in 173 countries and territories from 2010 to 2019 to analyze the socioeconomic determinants that impact the global TB epidemic. In addition, the TB incidence in 2030 was predicted.MethodsThis study analyses TB incidence data from 173 countries and territories between 2010 and 2019. The Geotree model would be used to reconstruct the geographical evolutionary process of TB, which provides a simplified schema for geo-visualizing the trajectories of TB incidence and their socioeconomic drivers. Additionally, to estimate the future TB incidence in 2030, a multilevel model was utilized in conjunction with the hierarchical nature of the Geotree based on a stratified heterogeneity analysis.ResultsGlobal TB incidence was found to be associated with the country type and development stages. Between 2010 and 2019, the average TB incidence rate in 173 countries and territories was -27.48%, with marked spatially stratified heterogeneity by country type and development stage. Low-income and lower-middle-income countries were most vulnerable to TB. Upper-middle-income countries experienced a faster decline in TB incidence than high-income countries, and TB incidence generally decreased as the development stage increased, except for the lower-middle development stage in 2019.The highest average rate of decline in TB incidence was observed in the upper-middle development stage of high-income countries, with a reduction of 45.24%. Meanwhile, 37 high-income countries in the high development stage demonstrated an average rate of change of -13.93%. Socioeconomic determinants, including gross domestic product per capita, urbanization rate, and sociodemographic index, were found to inhibit TB incidence. Based on current trends, the predicted average global TB incidence in 2030 is 91.581 per 100,000 population.ConclusionsThe trajectories of the global TB incidence have been reconstructed to formulate targeted public health responses. To eliminate TB, countries at similar development stage can draw on the experiences of countries at higher development stages that are tailored to their unique characteristics. By learning from successful TB control strategies, countries can take strategic steps toward eradicating TB and improving public health outcomes. |
| 学科主题 | Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| WOS关键词 | SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS ; RISK-FACTORS ; DETERMINANTS ; BURDEN ; HEALTH ; TRANSMISSION ; EPIDEMICS ; INJURIES ; PATTERNS ; DISEASES |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | BMC |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/193454]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lei, Yanhui,Wang, Jinfeng,Wang, Yang,et al. Geographical evolutionary pathway of global tuberculosis incidence trends[J]. BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,2023,23(1):755. |
| APA | Lei, Yanhui,Wang, Jinfeng,Wang, Yang,&Xu, Chengdong.(2023).Geographical evolutionary pathway of global tuberculosis incidence trends.BMC PUBLIC HEALTH,23(1),755. |
| MLA | Lei, Yanhui,et al."Geographical evolutionary pathway of global tuberculosis incidence trends".BMC PUBLIC HEALTH 23.1(2023):755. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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