Impact-based probabilistic modeling of hydro-morphological processes in China (1985-2015)
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Nan; Cheng, Weiming; Zhang, Hongyan; van Westen, Cees; Xiong, Junnan; Liu, Changjun; Lombardo, Luigi |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-10-15 |
| 卷号 | 344页码:118463 |
| ISSN号 | 0301-4797 |
| 关键词 | Hydro-morphological processes Hazard impact Susceptibility modeling China |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118463 |
| 产权排序 | 2 |
| 文献子类 | Article |
| 英文摘要 | Hydro-morphological processes (HMP, any natural phenomenon contained within the spectrum defined between debris flows and flash floods) pose a relevant threat to infrastructure, urban and rural settlements and to lives in general. This has been widely observed in recent years and will likely become worse as climate change will influence the spatio-temporal pattern of precipitation events. The modelling of where HMP-driven hazards may occur can help define the appropriate course of actions before and during a crisis, reducing the potential losses that HMPs cause in their wake. However, the probabilistic information on locations prone to experience a given hazard is not sufficient to depict the risk our society may incur. To cover this aspect, modeling the loss infor-mation could open up to better territorial management strategies. In this work, we made use of the HMP catalogue of China from 1985 to 2015. Specifically, we implemented the Light Gradient Boosting (LGB) classifier to model the impact level that locations across China have suffered from HMPs over the thirty-year record. We obtained six impact levels as a combination of financial and life losses, whose classes we used as separate target variables for our LGB. In doing so, we estimated spatial probabilities of certain HMP impact, something that has yet to be tested in the natural hazard community, especially over such a large spatial domain. The results we obtained are encouraging, with each of the six impact categories being separately classified with excellent to outstanding performance (the worst case corresponds to a mean AUC = 0.862, whereas the best case corresponds to a mean AUC of 0.915). The good predictive performance our model produced suggest that the cartographic output could be useful to inform authorities of locations prone to human and infrastructural losses of specific magnitudes. |
| WOS关键词 | DEBRIS-FLOW SUSCEPTIBILITY ; LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY ; FLASH-FLOOD ; LOGISTIC-REGRESSION ; RISK ; CLIMATE ; MESSINA |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 出版者 | ACADEMIC PRESS LTD- ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001038000200001 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/194594]  |
| 专题 | 资源与环境信息系统国家重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Academy of Sciences 2.Southwest Petroleum University 3.University of Twente 4.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS 5.Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS 6.Northeast Normal University - China 7.China Institute of Water Resources & Hydropower Research |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Nan,Cheng, Weiming,Zhang, Hongyan,et al. Impact-based probabilistic modeling of hydro-morphological processes in China (1985-2015)[J]. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,2023,344:118463. |
| APA | Wang, Nan.,Cheng, Weiming.,Zhang, Hongyan.,van Westen, Cees.,Xiong, Junnan.,...&Lombardo, Luigi.(2023).Impact-based probabilistic modeling of hydro-morphological processes in China (1985-2015).JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT,344,118463. |
| MLA | Wang, Nan,et al."Impact-based probabilistic modeling of hydro-morphological processes in China (1985-2015)".JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 344(2023):118463. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
浏览0
下载0
收藏0
其他版本
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。