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Projected seasonal changes in future rainfall erosivity over the Lancang-Mekong River basin under the CMIP6 scenarios

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Xu, Ximeng; Yun, Xiaobo2; Tang, Qiuhong1; Cui, Huijuan3; Wang, Jie4; Zhang, Lu5; Chen, Deliang6
刊名JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
出版日期2023-05-01
卷号620页码:129444
ISSN号0022-1694
关键词Climate change Empirical model Soil erosion SSP scenarios Precipitation
DOI10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129444
文献子类Article
英文摘要Climate change is a driver of soil erosion, but the future projections of seasonal rainfall erosivity variability and spatial distribution over the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB) are still not well understood. Based on the bias-corrected precipitation data from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the impacts of future climate change on the seasonal rainfall erosivity over the LMRB were assessed using three widely applied empirical daily rainfall erosivity models under three combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5). The results show that rainfall erosivity would generally in-crease in the near term (2030-2060) and far term (2070-2100), and more ensemble members agree with the increase in rainfall erosivity, especially under the high emission scenarios in the far term. In the near term, the ensemble mean of basin-wide rainfall erosivity would increase by 2.5%-8.7% compared to the baseline period (1980-2010), while in the far term, the ensemble mean would increase by 12.2%-31.0%. Seasonal variations in rainfall erosivity show that summer rainfall erosivity from June to August accounts for more than two-thirds of the total annual rainfall erosivity. Although the projected basin-wide average summer rainfall erosivity would increase, the mid-southern basin in Thailand and southern Lao PDR would experience a decrease. For rainfall erosivity from March to May, large areas except for the mountainous part of China would also experience a decrease in seasonal rainfall erosivity. The projected changes in rainfall erosivity can contribute to a better understanding of soil erosion risk under climate change across the LMRB.
学科主题Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
WOS关键词SOIL-EROSION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION DATA ; WATER EROSION ; LAND-USE ; PATTERNS ; IMPACTS ; SOUTH ; DAMS
语种英语
出版者ELSEVIER
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/193483]  
专题陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文
作者单位1.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, Gothenburg, Sweden
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Meteorol Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Lanzhou, Peoples R China
6.CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT, Australia
7.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Xu, Ximeng,Yun, Xiaobo,Tang, Qiuhong,et al. Projected seasonal changes in future rainfall erosivity over the Lancang-Mekong River basin under the CMIP6 scenarios[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2023,620:129444.
APA Xu, Ximeng.,Yun, Xiaobo.,Tang, Qiuhong.,Cui, Huijuan.,Wang, Jie.,...&Chen, Deliang.(2023).Projected seasonal changes in future rainfall erosivity over the Lancang-Mekong River basin under the CMIP6 scenarios.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,620,129444.
MLA Xu, Ximeng,et al."Projected seasonal changes in future rainfall erosivity over the Lancang-Mekong River basin under the CMIP6 scenarios".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 620(2023):129444.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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