Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Wang, Tingting; Sun, Fubao |
| 刊名 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-07-10 |
| 卷号 | N/A |
| 关键词 | exposure extreme drought GDP global warming population vegetation-CO2 feedback |
| ISSN号 | 0899-8418 |
| DOI | 10.1002/joc.8174 |
| 产权排序 | 1 |
| 文献子类 | Article ; Early Access |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change has intensified drought severity, duration, frequency, and the spatial extent, promoting considerable concern about the socioeconomic exposure to drought. Some previous studies have suggested the overestimation of drought indices and more drying due to neglecting the impact of vegetation response to CO2. Using models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and the socioeconomic projections, we quantified the impact of vegetation-CO2 feedback on extreme drought frequency and the corresponding exposure of population and GDP under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios. Results show that extreme drought frequency will increase significantly, affecting over 70% of global land by the 2050s. Along with rapid growth of socioeconomic factors, population and GDP exposure will increase by 26.90%-36.12% and 2.51-2.95 folds in the 2030s and 67.78%-78.72% and 3.41-5.94 folds in the 2050s. Underdeveloped countries are projected to face the most significant challenges, with substantial increases in population and GDP exposure to extreme drought. By incorporating the impact of vegetation-CO2 feedback, we address biases of around 2% in extreme drought frequency, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, showing underestimations of more drying across around half of global land in the baseline period and the 2030s. The biases, however, shift to be overestimations globally in the 2050s. As a result, early underestimations of extreme drought frequency will lead to significant underestimations in exposed population and GDP by 5.25% and 6.07% in the baseline period, as well as in the 2030s. In contrast, later overestimations will lead to overestimations of exposed population by 3.16%-8.54% and exposed GDP by 2.82%-6.65% in the 2050s. This study provides a more accurate estimation of socioeconomic exposure to extreme drought and highlights the potential risks associated with global warming. |
| WOS关键词 | GLOBAL PATTERNS ; POPULATION ; RISK ; GDP ; CO2 |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001026252500001 |
| 出版者 | WILEY |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/194554]  |
| 专题 | 陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室_外文论文 |
| 作者单位 | 1.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS 2.Chinese Academy of Sciences 3.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology & Geography, CAS 4.Institute of Geographic Sciences & Natural Resources Research, CAS |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wang, Tingting,Sun, Fubao. Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2023,N/A. |
| APA | Wang, Tingting,&Sun, Fubao.(2023).Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,N/A. |
| MLA | Wang, Tingting,et al."Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY N/A(2023). |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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