AN ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL FLOOD RISK IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT
文献类型：学位论文
| 作者 | WEE HO LIM |
| 答辩日期 | 2019-01 |
| 文献子类 | 博士后出站报告 |
| 授予单位 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 授予地点 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 导师 | 未标出 |
| 关键词 | 无 |
| 学位名称 | 博士后 |
| 英文摘要 | In the context of climate change, global hydrological cycle would accelerate in a warmer atmosphere and this could cause more intense precipitations and floods in part of the world. Whilst recent global flood risk assessments have advanced our understanding, the socioeconomic benefits of flood defences (in terms of reduction in population and economic exposure) and the corresponding residual risk (in terms of residual population and economic exposure) remain unclear globally and regionally. To address these knowledge gaps, we first used the runoff data from a baseline and 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models to drive the Catchment-based Macro-scale Floodplain (CaMa-Flood) model incorporated with the latest satellite-river width information. From the modelled annual maxima of river water depth, we adopted the Gumbel distribution to establish the river water depth-flood return period relationship. From there, we evaluated how flood affect the people and economy (i.e., gross domestic product) for a wide range of flood return periods. We examined the socioeconomic benefits and the corresponding residual risk for the globe and 26 subcontinental regions. We found that the global population (gross domestic product) exposed to flooding is about 8% (7%) per year lower when implementing the current flood defenses in accordance to the FLOod PROtection Standard database. By keeping the current flood defenses unchanged in the future (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5] and RCP8.5), the globe and many regions (especially where developing countries are located) would encounter greater residual risk. We confirmed that higher greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5) would cause additional threat to people and economy. To this end, we recommend a mixture of climate adaptation (flood protection infrastructure investement) and mitigation (cutting greenhouse gas emissions) measures in order to manage the risk of flooding under climate change. Current study should be interesting for policymakers and decision-makers in developing informed long-term natural disaster risk reduction frameworks; and supplement several knowledge gaps in several global reports prepared by the IPCC, World Bank and United Nations. |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 页码 | 57 |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/193925]  |
| 专题 | 地理科学与资源研究所_研究生部 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | WEE HO LIM. AN ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL FLOOD RISK IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT[D]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所. 2019. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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