Warming and greening exacerbate the propagation risk from meteorological to soil moisture drought
文献类型：期刊论文
| 作者 | Li, Yifei5; Huang, Shengzhi5; Wang, Hao4; Huang, Qiang5; Li, Pei5; Zheng, Xudong5; Wang, Zhixia5; Jiang, Shijie3; Leng, Guoyong2; Li, Ji2 |
| 刊名 | JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
 |
| 出版日期 | 2023-07-01 |
| 卷号 | 622页码:16 |
| 关键词 | Meteorological drought Soil moisture drought Propagation time and trigger threshold Propagation dynamics and mechanism Warming and greening Drought early warning |
| ISSN号 | 0022-1694 |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129716 |
| 通讯作者 | Huang, Shengzhi(huangshengzhi7788@126.com) |
| 英文摘要 | Quantifying the propagation time (PT) and trigger threshold (TR) from meteorological to soil moisture drought is critically important for drought early warning and precise defense. Nevertheless, existing propagation characteristics usually have a low temporal-spatial resolution, and their dynamics and related driving mechanisms (such as global warming and greening) are still incompletely understood. To fill the knowledge gap, this study proposes a drought propagation model based on the Bayesian causal analysis framework for quantifying the PT and TR with a high resolution. Taking Northeast China (NEC) as a case study, we further explore the dynamics of drought propagation characteristics in recent decades and possible driving mechanisms using the sliding window and Random Forest model. Results showed that: (1) the drought PT varies spatially and temporally in the study area, with long PT in the central plain and western high-altitude areas in the early growing season (typically over 200 days), while short in the middle and late growing season in most regions (less than one month in July and August), The TR is generally lower than 80 mm in the western regions and do not change significantly with time; (2) the PT and TR in the vast central and western regions exhibit a downward trend in the late growing season, resulting in a strikingly increased risk of drought propagation; (3) Increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD) due to warming, along with decreasing aridity index (AI) due to precipitation shortage are the main drivers on the accelerated drought propagation. Moreover, local greening has also played a critical role in accelerating propagation via transpiration that consumes soil water, which contributes more than 20% to propagation dynamics. Overall, this study sheds new insights into drought propagation dynamics and mechanisms in a changing environment, providing a promising avenue for drought early warning and mitigation. |
| WOS关键词 | RANDOM FOREST ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CHINA ; IMPACT ; INDEX ; VARIABILITY ; PREDICTION ; STATE |
| 资助项目 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA28060100] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[52279026] |
| WOS研究方向 | Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:001011657100001 |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 资助机构 | Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China |
| 源URL | [http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/195251]  |
| 专题 | 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 |
| 通讯作者 | Huang, Shengzhi |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Leipzig, Remote Sensing Ctr Earth Syst Res RSC4Earth, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 3.Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Computat Hydrosyst, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany 4.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China 5.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian 710048, Peoples R China 6.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Remote Sensing, Permoserstr 15, D-04318 Leipzig, Germany |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Yifei,Huang, Shengzhi,Wang, Hao,et al. Warming and greening exacerbate the propagation risk from meteorological to soil moisture drought[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,2023,622:16. |
| APA | Li, Yifei.,Huang, Shengzhi.,Wang, Hao.,Huang, Qiang.,Li, Pei.,...&Peng, Jian.(2023).Warming and greening exacerbate the propagation risk from meteorological to soil moisture drought.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,622,16. |
| MLA | Li, Yifei,et al."Warming and greening exacerbate the propagation risk from meteorological to soil moisture drought".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 622(2023):16. |
入库方式： OAI收割
来源：地理科学与资源研究所
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