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Historical and future variation of soil organic carbon in China

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhang, Zipeng2,3,4; Ding, Jianli2,3,4; Zhu, Chuanmei2,3,4; Wang, Jinjie2,3,4; Ge, Xiangyu2,3,4; Li, Xiang2,3,4; Han, Lijing2,3,4; Chen, Xiangyue5; Wang, Jingzhe1,6
刊名GEODERMA
出版日期2023-08-01
卷号436页码:14
关键词Soil organic carbon Digital soil mapping Random Forest Climate change
ISSN号0016-7061
DOI10.1016/j.geoderma.2023.116557
通讯作者Ding, Jianli(watraid@xju.edu.cn)
英文摘要Revealing historical changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and exploring its future status are important for safeguarding soil health and food security, giving full play to the service function of soil ecosystems, and coping with climate change. However, there is still a gap in our understanding of the SOC stocks in China and their spatial patterns in response to future climate change. Therefore, we attempted to fill this knowledge gap using a large amount of soil observation data, digital soil mapping technology, and global circulation models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). In this study, a random forest model was selected to construct the spatial relationship between SOC in the top 0-20 cm (SOC020) and 0-100 cm (SOC0100) of the soil and 21 environmental factors. Spatiotemporal changes in SOC from 1980 to 2100 were revealed at a resolution of 1 km and five-year interval for three climate scenarios in CMIP6. The cross-validation results indicated acceptable predictions for both depths of SOC; however, relatively large prediction uncertainties were observed for SOC0100 in the Tibetan Plateau and northeastern China. The mean values of SOC020 and SOC0100 over the last four decades were 35.77 and 84.62 Tg, respectively, and showed carbon sinks at the national scale, with accumulation rates of 0.05 Pg yr-1 and 0.036 Pg y-1 for the two depths. Compared with historical values (1980-2020), SOC will fluctuate significantly in the future under different climate scenarios. Among them, SOC showed a slow increasing trend at both depths under the SSP1-1.9 low emission scenario, while SOC presented a decreasing trend under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 medium-high emission scenarios. In particular, in most of China under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, SOC0100 presented a larger likelihood of being a carbon source. This study provides a reference for exploring the response of soil carbon pools to climate change and evaluating the effectiveness of land management and ecological protection.
WOS关键词CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SEQUESTRATION ; FORMULATION ; PROJECTION ; RESOLUTION ; FEEDBACKS ; DYNAMICS ; STORAGE ; PLANT
资助项目National Natural Science Foundation of China[41961059] ; Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences[2022LDE007] ; Talent Program Tianchi Talent (Young Doctor) in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region[51052300503] ; Basic Research Projects for Universities in the Autonomous Region[XJEDU2023P004] ; Open Project of Xinjiang Oasis Ecology Key Laboratory[2020D04038] ; Basic Research Program of Shenzhen[20220811173316001] ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province[2023A1515011273] ; Shenzhen Polytechnic Research Fund[6023310031K] ; Post-doctoral Later-stage Foundation Project of Shenzhen Polytechnic[6023271008K] ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System
WOS研究方向Agriculture
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:001029562100001
出版者ELSEVIER
资助机构National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Open Research Fund of Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Aerospace Information Research Institute Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Talent Program Tianchi Talent (Young Doctor) in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region ; Basic Research Projects for Universities in the Autonomous Region ; Open Project of Xinjiang Oasis Ecology Key Laboratory ; Basic Research Program of Shenzhen ; Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province ; Shenzhen Polytechnic Research Fund ; Post-doctoral Later-stage Foundation Project of Shenzhen Polytechnic ; State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/195794]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Ding, Jianli
作者单位1.Shenzhen Polytech, Sch Artificial Intelligence, Shenzhen 518055, Peoples R China
2.Xinjiang Univ, Coll Geog & Remote Sci, Urumqi 830017, Peoples R China
3.Xinjiang Univ, Xinjiang Key Lab Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830017, Peoples R China
4.Xinjiang Univ, Higher Educ Inst, Key Lab Smart City & Environm Modelling, Urumqi 830017, Peoples R China
5.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, State Key Lab Resources & Environm Informat Syst, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhang, Zipeng,Ding, Jianli,Zhu, Chuanmei,et al. Historical and future variation of soil organic carbon in China[J]. GEODERMA,2023,436:14.
APA Zhang, Zipeng.,Ding, Jianli.,Zhu, Chuanmei.,Wang, Jinjie.,Ge, Xiangyu.,...&Wang, Jingzhe.(2023).Historical and future variation of soil organic carbon in China.GEODERMA,436,14.
MLA Zhang, Zipeng,et al."Historical and future variation of soil organic carbon in China".GEODERMA 436(2023):14.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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