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Quantifying the effects of nonlinear trends of meteorological factors on drought dynamics

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Guo, Wenwen3; Huang, Shengzhi3; Zhao, Yong1; Leng, Guoyong2; Zhao, Xianggui3; Li, Pei3; Nie, Mingqiu3; Huang, Qiang3
刊名NATURAL HAZARDS
出版日期2023-04-12
页码22
ISSN号0921-030X
关键词Drought SPEI Nonlinear trend Loess Plateau Climate change
DOI10.1007/s11069-023-05954-7
通讯作者Huang, Shengzhi(huangshengzhi7788@126.com)
英文摘要Exploring the effects of meteorological factors on drought dynamic is of important significance for in-depth understanding drought formation mechanism and developing strategies to adapt to climate change. Nevertheless, existing studies have neglected the influence of nonlinear characteristics of meteorological factors on drought evolution, as well as their complex interactions, inhibiting in-depth understanding drought formation mechanism and accurate forecasting. To this end, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is adopted in this study to characterize meteorological drought, and the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is used to explore the nonlinear trend of meteorological factors. Moreover, considering that the interaction between meteorological factors brings some uncertainty in quantifying their individual contributions, a new framework for quantifying drought dynamics taking into account nonlinear trends in meteorological factors and their interactions is proposed based on numerical experiments under eight climate experiments. The Loess Plateau (LP), where drought occurs frequently and its ecological environment is very fragile, is selected as a case study. Results show that: (1) the LP generally shows a drying trend on annual and seasonal scales except for summer especially for its northwest; (2) the interaction between meteorological factors affects the evolution of drought. Eliminating the interactions, the dominant factor on annual SPEI trend is wind speed, both in spring and winter, while sunshine hours and precipitation dominate summer and autumn SPEI trend, respectively; (3) the positive trend contribution of sunshine hours to SPEI is greater than the negative contribution of temperature in summer, and its decline plays an important role in alleviating the drought on the LP in summer. In general, this study sheds a new insight into quantifying the nonlinear effects of meteorological factors to drought dynamics. Relevant findings will help to further understand the mechanism of drought formation under changing environments and provide scientific and technical support for drought early warning and scientific response.
WOS关键词EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION ; LOESS PLATEAU ; REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION ; PAN EVAPORATION ; ARIDITY INDEX ; CHINA ; TEMPERATURE ; PRECIPITATION ; EVOLUTION
资助项目National Key Research and Development Program of China[2022YFC3202300] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[52279026] ; Key R&D Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region[2022B03024-4] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA28060100]
WOS研究方向Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
语种英语
出版者SPRINGER
WOS记录号WOS:000983736500001
资助机构National Key Research and Development Program of China ; National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Key R&D Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/197257]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Huang, Shengzhi
作者单位1.China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, State Key Lab Simulat & Regulat Water Cycle River, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Xian Univ Technol, State Key Lab Ecohydraul Northwest Arid Reg China, Xian 710048, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Guo, Wenwen,Huang, Shengzhi,Zhao, Yong,et al. Quantifying the effects of nonlinear trends of meteorological factors on drought dynamics[J]. NATURAL HAZARDS,2023:22.
APA Guo, Wenwen.,Huang, Shengzhi.,Zhao, Yong.,Leng, Guoyong.,Zhao, Xianggui.,...&Huang, Qiang.(2023).Quantifying the effects of nonlinear trends of meteorological factors on drought dynamics.NATURAL HAZARDS,22.
MLA Guo, Wenwen,et al."Quantifying the effects of nonlinear trends of meteorological factors on drought dynamics".NATURAL HAZARDS (2023):22.

入库方式： OAI收割

来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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