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The role of booster vaccination in decreasing COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rate: Evidence from 32 countries

文献类型：期刊论文

作者Zhou, Cui3,4; Wheelock, Asa M.5; Zhang, Chutian3,4; Ma, Jian3,4; Dong, Kaixing3,4; Pan, Jingxiang3; Li, Zhichao1; Liang, Wannian3,4; Gao, Jing2,3,5; Xu, Lei3,4
刊名FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH
出版日期2023-04-18
卷号11页码:10
关键词COVID-19 vaccination age-adjusted case fatality rate XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boosting) SHapley Additive exPlanations
DOI10.3389/fpubh.2023.1150095
通讯作者Liang, Wannian(liangwn@tsinghua.edu.cn) ; Gao, Jing(jing.gao@ki.se) ; Xu, Lei(xu_lei@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn)
英文摘要BackgroundThe global COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing, and cross-country and cross-period variation in COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rates (CFRs) has not been clarified. Here, we aimed to identify the country-specific effects of booster vaccination and other features that may affect heterogeneity in age-adjusted CFRs with a worldwide scope, and to predict the benefit of increasing booster vaccination rate on future CFR. MethodCross-temporal and cross-country variations in CFR were identified in 32 countries using the latest available database, with multi-feature (vaccination coverage, demographic characteristics, disease burden, behavioral risks, environmental risks, health services and trust) using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). After that, country-specific risk features that affect age-adjusted CFRs were identified. The benefit of booster on age-adjusted CFR was simulated by increasing booster vaccination by 1-30% in each country. ResultsOverall COVID-19 age-adjusted CFRs across 32 countries ranged from 110 deaths per 100,000 cases to 5,112 deaths per 100,000 cases from February 4, 2020 to Jan 31, 2022, which were divided into countries with age-adjusted CFRs higher than the crude CFRs and countries with age-adjusted CFRs lower than the crude CFRs (n = 9 and n = 23) when compared with the crude CFR. The effect of booster vaccination on age-adjusted CFRs becomes more important from Alpha to Omicron period (importance scores: 0.03-0.23). The Omicron period model showed that the key risk factors for countries with higher age-adjusted CFR than crude CFR are low GDP per capita and low booster vaccination rates, while the key risk factors for countries with higher age-adjusted CFR than crude CFR were high dietary risks and low physical activity. Increasing booster vaccination rates by 7% would reduce CFRs in all countries with age-adjusted CFRs higher than the crude CFRs. ConclusionBooster vaccination still plays an important role in reducing age-adjusted CFRs, while there are multidimensional concurrent risk factors and precise joint intervention strategies and preparations based on country-specific risks are also essential.
资助项目National Key R&D Program of China[2021ZD0114103] ; Karolinska Institutet Research Foundation[2022-02329] ; Research Fund at Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, China
WOS研究方向Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
语种英语
出版者FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
WOS记录号WOS:000980085900001
资助机构National Key R&D Program of China ; Karolinska Institutet Research Foundation ; Research Fund at Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, China
源URL[http://ir.igsnrr.ac.cn/handle/311030/197288]  
专题中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
通讯作者Liang, Wannian; Gao, Jing; Xu, Lei
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Univ Helsinki, Dept Resp Med, Helsinki, Finland
3.Tsinghua Univ, Vanke Sch Publ Hlth, Beijing, Peoples R China
4.Tsinghua Univ, Inst Hlth China, Beijing, Peoples R China
5.Karolinska Inst, Ctr Mol Med, Dept Med, Resp Med Unit, Stockholm, Sweden
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714		 Zhou, Cui,Wheelock, Asa M.,Zhang, Chutian,et al. The role of booster vaccination in decreasing COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rate: Evidence from 32 countries[J]. FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH,2023,11:10.
APA Zhou, Cui.,Wheelock, Asa M..,Zhang, Chutian.,Ma, Jian.,Dong, Kaixing.,...&Xu, Lei.(2023).The role of booster vaccination in decreasing COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rate: Evidence from 32 countries.FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH,11,10.
MLA Zhou, Cui,et al."The role of booster vaccination in decreasing COVID-19 age-adjusted case fatality rate: Evidence from 32 countries".FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH 11(2023):10.

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来源：地理科学与资源研究所

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